Grand Slam · Round of 64 · Australian Open
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🎯 Baseliner
Arnaldi
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 54% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 2,419 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Alex de Minaur here.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–8 | 13–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.45 | 2.18 |
| ROI % | -12.4% | +49.9% |
| Units P/L | -2.48u | +9.48u |
Prior meetings and scores · 2 career meetings
1
Minaur
1
Arnaldi
May 8, 2026
Internazionali BNL d'Italia
C Clay · Round of 64
Jan 7, 2024
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 64
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Arnaldi's 50%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Toby Samuel | W 64 64 62 | W 36 64 64 |
| Benjamin Bonzi | W 62 64 | L 76 36 46 |
| Matteo Berrettini | W 61 76 | W 75 52 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 63 64 75 | W 76 67 36 76 64 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | L 36 67 | W 76 57 63 62 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 62 46 64 | L 46 46 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | W 36 64 63 | L 63 62 57 46 36 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 16 | L 16 64 36 |
| Nuno Borges | W 75 62 | W 63 67 76 |
| Mackenzie McDonald | W 62 62 63 | L 06 16 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Minaur | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 62.5% | 61.1% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 64.9% | 64.1% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 51.8% | 49% |
| Aces / Match | 2.5 | 4.5 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.3 | 3.2 |
| Break Points Saved % | 57.9% | 51.4% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 30% | 33.4% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 50% | 52.5% |
| BP Converted % | 44.7% | 45.6% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 19.3 | 25 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 32.4 | 35 |
| Net Pts Won % | 76.9% | 60.6% |
| Total Pts Won % | 49.3% | 49.3% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Toby Samuel
Lexus Eastbourne Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 21
Matteo Berrettini
Roland Garros · Quarterfinals
Jun 3
Frances Tiafoe
Roland Garros · Round of 16
May 31
Raphael Collignon
Roland Garros · Round of 32
May 29
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Roland Garros · Round of 64
May 27
Matchup overview
Alex de Minaur and Matteo Arnaldi face off in the Round of 64 at Australian Open on Hard.
Alex de Minaur leads 1-1 over 2 previous meetings.
Alex de Minaur is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Brandon Nakashima (Jun 19).
Matteo Arnaldi is 5-0 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Toby Samuel (Jun 21).
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