Alex de Minaur and Matteo Arnaldi have met 2 times since 2024; they are level 1–1. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Arnaldi won at Internazionali BNL d'Italia (2026).
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🎯 Baseliner
Arnaldi
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 54% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 2,419 matches in our dataset — a stylistic lean toward Alex de Minaur.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
2 career meetings, newest first
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 85% | 17/20 | 95% | 18/19 |
| 3 or more | 40% | 8/20 | 53% | 10/19 |
| 5 or more | 20% | 4/20 | 37% | 7/19 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/20 | 11% | 2/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/20 | 5% | 1/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/20 | 0% | 0/19 |
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–8 | 13–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.45 | 2.18 |
| ROI % | -12.4% | +49.9% |
| Units P/L | -2.48u | +9.48u |
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Arnaldi's 50%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Toby Samuel | W 64 64 62 | W 36 64 64 |
| Benjamin Bonzi | W 62 64 | L 76 36 46 |
| Matteo Berrettini | W 61 76 | W 75 52 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 63 64 75 | W 76 67 36 76 64 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | L 36 67 | W 76 57 63 62 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 62 46 64 | L 46 46 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | W 36 64 63 | L 63 62 57 46 36 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 16 | L 16 64 36 |
| Nuno Borges | W 75 62 | W 63 67 76 |
| Mackenzie McDonald | W 62 62 63 | L 06 16 |
Last five matches per player
Brandon Nakashima
HSBC Championships · Quarterfinals
Jun 19
Denis Shapovalov
HSBC Championships · Round of 16
Jun 17
Adrian Mannarino
Libema Open · Semifinals
Jun 13
Kamil Majchrzak
Libema Open · Final
Jun 13
Benjamin Bonzi
Libema Open · Quarterfinals
Jun 12
Martin Damm
Libema Open · Round of 16
Jun 11
Gabriel Diallo
HSBC Championships · Round of 32
Jun 9
Jakub Mensik
Roland Garros · Round of 32
May 29
Toby Samuel
Lexus Eastbourne Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 21
Matteo Berrettini
Roland Garros · Quarterfinals
Jun 3
Frances Tiafoe
Roland Garros · Round of 16
May 31
Raphael Collignon
Roland Garros · Round of 32
May 29
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Roland Garros · Round of 64
May 27
Tallon Griekspoor
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 26
Rafael Jodar
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 32
May 10
Alex de Minaur
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 64
May 8
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 52% |
| Sets won | 65% | 50% |
| Games won | 55% | 49% |
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
