Grand Slam · Round of 16 · Australian Open
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
⚙️ Grinder
Bublik
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 3,433 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Alexander Bublik here.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–7 | 6–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.61 | 2.02 |
| ROI % | -19.2% | -22.8% |
| Units P/L | -2.69u | -2.96u |
Prior meetings and scores · 6 career meetings
4
Minaur
2
Bublik
Jan 25, 2026
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Oct 31, 2025
ATP Masters 1000 Paris
H Hard · Quarterfinals
May 28, 2025
Roland Garros
C Clay · Round of 64
Mar 10, 2024
ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells
H Hard · Round of 32
Apr 19, 2021
Barcelona
C Clay · Round of 32
Jan 4, 2021
Antalya
H Hard · Finals
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Bublik's 50%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Tommy Paul | L 62 36 36 | W 76 67 63 67 61 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | W 63 36 76 | W 57 64 62 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | W 36 64 63 | W 64 62 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | L 36 67 | L 26 57 |
| Valentin Vacherot | L 46 63 36 | L 63 36 46 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | L 57 26 16 | L 36 06 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 76 67 64 | W 62 75 |
| Matteo Berrettini | W 61 76 | L 46 46 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | W 63 62 | L 16 26 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 36 76 75 | W 63 63 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Minaur | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 60.9% | 65.7% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 66.1% | 70.5% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 49.2% | 46.2% |
| Aces / Match | 2.6 | 7.9 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| Break Points Saved % | 56.9% | 51.4% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 27.8% | 24.4% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 47.5% | 45.4% |
| BP Converted % | 32.2% | 29.9% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 18.9 | 23.8 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 36.5 | 23.8 |
| Net Pts Won % | 69.4% | 67.1% |
| Total Pts Won % | 48% | 47.1% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 33% | 25% |
Last five matches per player
Tommy Paul
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Semifinals
May 19
Luciano Darderi
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Quarterfinals
May 16
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Round of 16
May 13
Francisco Cerundolo
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Round of 32
May 9
Matteo Arnaldi
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 64
May 8
Arthur Rinderknech
Gonet Geneva Open · Quarterfinals
May 16
Edas Butvilas
Gonet Geneva Open · Round of 16
May 13
Learner Tien
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 32
May 10
Sebastian Baez
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 64
May 8
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Mutua Madrid Open · Round of 64
Apr 25
Matchup overview
Alex de Minaur and Alexander Bublik face off in the Round of 16 at Australian Open on Hard.
Alex de Minaur leads 4-2 over 6 previous meetings.
Alex de Minaur is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Tommy Paul (May 19).
Alexander Bublik is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Arthur Rinderknech (May 16).
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