ATP Masters 1000 · Round of 64 · Mutua Madrid Open
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Fokina
🪃 Counterpuncher
Busta
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 🎾 All-Court is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 1,149 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and H2H matter most when Alejandro Davidovich Fokina plays Pablo Carreno Busta.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Fokina | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–4 | 14–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.66 | 1.86 |
| ROI % | -9.7% | +27.9% |
| Units P/L | -0.87u | +5.30u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
First career meeting
Fokina and Busta have never faced each other on tour.
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Fokina | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more | 100% | 10/10 | 84% | 16/19 |
| 3 or more | 80% | 8/10 | 58% | 11/19 |
| 5 or more | 60% | 6/10 | 37% | 7/19 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 2/10 | 26% | 5/19 |
| 15 or more | 10% | 1/10 | 11% | 2/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/19 |
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Fokina has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Busta's 30%).
| Opponent | Fokina | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Llamas Ruiz | W 63 62 67 63 | L 46 26 |
| Quentin Halys | L 67 46 | L 64 57 36 |
| Jakub Mensik | W 62 46 62 | L 57 64 62 67 36 |
| Mattia Bellucci | L 36 36 | W 64 26 76 |
| Jiri Lehecka | L 36 63 16 26 | L 67 46 |
| Denis Shapovalov | L 75 46 36 | W 62 64 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 61 46 63 76 | W 63 62 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | W 61 63 | L 26 61 36 |
| Ben Shelton | W 62 75 | L 46 26 46 |
| Nuno Borges | W 62 63 | L 76 67 36 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Fokina | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 67.6% | 64.6% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 70.2% | 70% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 44.6% | 48.7% |
| Aces / Match | 6.6 | 5.3 |
| Double Faults / Match | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| Break Points Saved % | 53.2% | 57.9% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 23.7% | 31.7% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 44.4% | 48.3% |
| BP Converted % | 23.7% | 50.8% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 22.6 | 22.7 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 21.7 | 24.9 |
| Net Pts Won % | 64.6% | 68.2% |
| Total Pts Won % | 46.8% | 50.3% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 0% | 89% |
Last five matches per player
Quentin Halys
Miami Open presented by Itau · Round of 64
Mar 21
Learner Tien
BNP Paribas Open · Round of 16
Mar 10
Jakub Mensik
BNP Paribas Open · Round of 32
Mar 8
Zachary Svajda
BNP Paribas Open · Round of 64
Mar 6
Mattia Bellucci
Abierto Mexicano Telcel presentado por HSBC · Round of 16
Feb 25
Marton Fucsovics
Mutua Madrid Open · Round of 128
Apr 23
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Montemar ENE Construccion · Final
Mar 29
Sebastian Ofner
Montemar ENE Construccion · Semifinals
Mar 28
Pedro Martinez
Montemar ENE Construccion · Quarterfinals
Mar 27
Svyatoslav Gulin
Montemar ENE Construccion · Round of 32
Mar 24
Matchup overview
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Pablo Carreno Busta face off in the Round of 64 at Mutua Madrid Open on Clay.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Pablo Carreno Busta are meeting for the first time in our records.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is 2-3 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Quentin Halys (Mar 21).
Pablo Carreno Busta is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Marton Fucsovics (Apr 23).
Model consensus currently favors Alejandro Davidovich Fokina with 52.1% confidence.
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