Pablo Carreno Busta vs Vilius GaubasPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Pablo Carreno Busta and Vilius Gaubas have met 2 times since 2025; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Tenerife 1 Challenger in 2025 on hard. Busta has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Busta has taken 4 sets to Gaubas's 1. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Carreno Busta | Gaubas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Pablo Carreno Busta | Vilius Gaubas | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 23/40 | 47% | 18/38 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 10/20 | 33% | 9/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 45% | 27/60 | 45% | 29/65 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 18/38 | 27% | 9/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 57% | 12/21 | 60% | 15/25 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 10/16 | 41% | 13/32 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 31/35 | 81% | 29/36 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 66% | 23/35 | 50% | 18/36 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Carreno Busta 1, Gaubas 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Gaubas
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs ⚙️ Grinder is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 279 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jul 21, 2026
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril
C Clay · 1st Round
Feb 7, 2025
Tenerife 1 Challenger
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Busta | Gaubas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Pablo Carreno Busta | Vilius Gaubas | ||
| 1 or more | 88% | 7/8 | 91% | 10/11 |
| 3 or more | 63% | 5/8 | 46% | 5/11 |
| 5 or more | 25% | 2/8 | 27% | 3/11 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 9% | 1/11 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Busta | Gaubas |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–5 | 6–7 |
| Avg odds | 2.29 | 2.10 |
| ROI % | +0.8% | -19.5% |
| Units P/L | +0.07u | -2.53u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Busta | Gaubas |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 3 | 2 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 562 mi · 905 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | SMR → GER |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 8 shared opponents, both Busta and Gaubas posted a 63% win rate.
| Opponent | Busta | Gaubas |
|---|---|---|
| Luka Pavlovic | W 36 61 62 | W 61 75 |
| Luca Van Assche | L 36 64 26 | L 46 26 62 57 |
| Dusan Lajovic | L 46 63 36 | W 36 64 36 63 64 |
| Pablo Llamas Ruiz | L 46 26 | L 36 16 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 57 75 75 | W 75 61 |
| Petr Brunclik | W 64 63 | L 63 46 36 |
| Martin Damm | W 63 63 | W 67 63 76 |
| Andrea Pellegrino | W 63 64 | W 64 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Max Houkes
Hagen Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 4
Facundo Diaz Acosta
San Marino Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 1
Thiago Monteiro
San Marino Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Genaro Alberto Olivieri
San Marino Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Luka Pavlovic
San Marino Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Pablo Carreno Busta
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Jesper de Jong
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round
Jul 13
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Braunschweig Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 9
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 65–68 matches
| Metric | Busta | Gaubas |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 65% | 57% |
| Sets won | 60% | 52% |
| Games won | 53% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Busta | Gaubas |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Busta | Gaubas |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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