Pablo Carreno Busta vs Pablo Llamas RuizPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Pablo Carreno Busta and Pablo Llamas Ruiz have met 2 times since 2025; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at U.S. Open - New York in 2025 on hard. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Ruiz leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Busta has taken 3 sets to Ruiz's 2. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Llamas Ruiz won at Alicante Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Carreno Busta | Llamas Ruiz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Pablo Carreno Busta | Pablo Llamas Ruiz | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 23/40 | 71% | 29/41 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 10/20 | 44% | 7/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 45% | 27/60 | 33% | 19/57 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 18/38 | 55% | 26/47 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 57% | 12/21 | 89% | 8/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 10/16 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 31/35 | 95% | 36/38 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 66% | 23/35 | 76% | 29/38 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Carreno Busta 0, Llamas Ruiz 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Ruiz
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🏹 Frontrunner archetype wins about 54% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 657 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Pablo Carreno Busta.
Frontrunner players often use fast starts and aggressive openers to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Mar 29, 2026
Alicante Challenger
C Clay · Final
Aug 24, 2025
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Busta | Ruiz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Pablo Carreno Busta | Pablo Llamas Ruiz | ||
| 1 or more | 88% | 7/8 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 3 or more | 63% | 5/8 | 14% | 1/7 |
| 5 or more | 25% | 2/8 | 14% | 1/7 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Busta | Ruiz |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–5 | 5–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.29 | 1.69 |
| ROI % | +0.8% | -28.8% |
| Units P/L | +0.07u | -2.88u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Busta | Ruiz |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 3 | 1 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | MEX |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (86% vs Ruiz's 71%).
| Opponent | Busta | Ruiz |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Comesana | W 64 63 | W 63 75 |
| Vilius Gaubas | W 61 63 | W 63 61 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | W 76 75 36 64 | L 36 67 76 06 |
| Elmer Moller | W 62 63 | L 67 36 |
| Dali Blanch | W 62 46 63 | W 61 62 |
| Javier Barranco Cosano | W 63 62 | W 64 75 |
| Vit Kopriva | L 36 61 46 | W 63 26 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Francisco Comesana
Cancun Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 19
Keegan Rice
Vancouver Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 29
Mark Lajal
Bloomfield Hills Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Bruno Kuzuhara
Bloomfield Hills Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Tristan Boyer
Wimbledon · 3rd Round Qualifying
Jun 30
Zachary Svajda
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Pol Martin Tiffon
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Dan Added
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 22
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 60–65 matches
| Metric | Busta | Ruiz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 65% | 68% |
| Sets won | 60% | 63% |
| Games won | 53% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Busta | Ruiz |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Busta | Ruiz |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.