Pablo Carreno Busta vs Pablo Llamas RuizPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Pablo Carreno Busta and Pablo Llamas Ruiz have met 2 times since 2025; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at U.S. Open - New York in 2025 on hard. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Ruiz leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Busta has taken 3 sets to Ruiz's 2. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Llamas Ruiz won at Alicante Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Carreno Busta | Llamas Ruiz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Pablo Carreno Busta | Pablo Llamas Ruiz | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 53% | 18/34 | 67% | 26/39 |
| Wins a set when losing | 44% | 8/18 | 47% | 8/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 24/52 | 38% | 21/56 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 14/29 | 53% | 24/45 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 59% | 13/22 | 64% | 7/11 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 67% | 10/15 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 24/27 | 89% | 34/38 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 18/27 | 68% | 26/38 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Carreno Busta 0, Llamas Ruiz 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Ruiz
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
Both Pablo Carreno Busta and Pablo Llamas Ruiz are 🏹 Frontrunner types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 280 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Mar 29, 2026
Alicante Challenger
C Clay · Final
Aug 24, 2025
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Busta | Ruiz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Pablo Carreno Busta | Pablo Llamas Ruiz | ||
| 1 or more | 92% | 11/12 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 3 or more | 50% | 6/12 | 58% | 7/12 |
| 5 or more | 17% | 2/12 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 8% | 1/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Busta | Ruiz |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–6 | 7–7 |
| Avg odds | 2.47 | 1.65 |
| ROI % | -9.8% | -28.4% |
| Units P/L | -1.18u | -3.98u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Busta | Ruiz |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 6 | — |
| Distance | 663 mi · 1,067 km | — |
| Route | CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (71% vs Ruiz's 57%).
| Opponent | Busta | Ruiz |
|---|---|---|
| Pedro Martinez | L | L |
| Luca Nardi | W 67 64 76 | W 61 76 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 46 26 | L 63 46 26 |
| Kimmer Coppejans | W 62 63 | W 63 46 63 |
| Francisco Comesana | W 64 63 | W 63 75 |
| Vilius Gaubas | W 61 63 | W 63 61 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | W 76 75 36 64 | L 36 67 76 06 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Pedro Martinez
Villena Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Petr Nesterov
Villena Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 8
Luca Nardi
Villena Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 5
Raul Brancaccio
Seville Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 9
Kimmer Coppejans
Seville Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Lloyd Harris
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Vitaliy Sachko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 27
Alex Bolt
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–59 matches
| Metric | Busta | Ruiz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 62% | 66% |
| Sets won | 58% | 61% |
| Games won | 52% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Busta | Ruiz |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Busta | Ruiz |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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