Mary Stoiana vs Paula BadosaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Mary Stoiana and Paula Badosa have met 1 time since 2026; Paula Badosa leads 1–0. Across all meetings Stoiana has taken 0 sets to Badosa's 2. Their most recent meeting: Paula Badosa won at SP Open - Sao Paulo (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Stoiana | Badosa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Mary Stoiana | Paula Badosa | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 67% | 37/55 | 74% | 20/27 |
| Wins a set when losing | 59% | 17/29 | 39% | 7/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 42% | 35/84 | 31% | 14/45 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 51% | 28/55 | 51% | 19/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 68% | 17/25 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 71% | 17/24 | 50% | 7/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 84% | 46/55 | 88% | 21/24 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 37/55 | 83% | 20/24 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Stoiana 0, Badosa 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Stoiana
👑 The Complete Package
Badosa
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 4,271 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Sep 18, 2026
SP Open - Sao Paulo
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Stoiana | Badosa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Mary Stoiana | Paula Badosa | ||
| 1 or more | 75% | 12/16 | 93% | 13/14 |
| 3 or more | 25% | 4/16 | 64% | 9/14 |
| 5 or more | 6% | 1/16 | 21% | 3/14 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/14 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Stoiana | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–8 | 10–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.92 | 1.72 |
| ROI % | -18.4% | -3.7% |
| Units P/L | -3.32u | -0.52u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Stoiana | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 6 |
| Distance | — | 10,936 mi · 17,599 km |
| Route | BRA → TUR | BRA → ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Stoiana has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Badosa's 60%).
| Opponent | Stoiana | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Jazmin Ortenzi | W 63 62 | W 46 62 62 |
| Oksana Selekhmeteva | W 60 57 64 | L 46 46 |
| Lulu Sun | W 62 63 | W 61 76 |
| Kayla Day | W 75 64 | W 64 63 |
| Iva Jovic | L 06 16 | L 26 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Hanna Chang
W100 Templeton · 1st Round
Oct 1
Julieta Pareja
W100 Templeton · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Paula Badosa
SP Open - Sao Paulo · Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Dominika Salkova
SP Open - Sao Paulo · 2nd Round
Sep 17
Claire Liu
SP Open - Sao Paulo · 1st Round
Sep 16
Julia Riera
Kia Open - Barranquilla · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Jazmin Ortenzi
Kia Open - Barranquilla · 1st Round
Sep 9
Alexandra Eala
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Jelena Ostapenko
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Daria Kasatkina
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Nadia Podoroska
SP Open - Sao Paulo · Semifinals
Sep 19
Mary Stoiana
SP Open - Sao Paulo · Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Jazmin Ortenzi
SP Open - Sao Paulo · 2nd Round
Sep 17
Justina Mikulskyte
SP Open - Sao Paulo · 1st Round
Sep 16
Coco Gauff
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 4
Daria Kasatkina
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–84 matches
| Metric | Stoiana | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 65% | 60% |
| Sets won | 63% | 59% |
| Games won | 54% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Stoiana | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 250 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Stoiana | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
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