Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Mariano Navone and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 2 times since 2024; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at French Open - Paris in 2024 on clay. Across all meetings Navone has taken 4 sets to Busta's 3. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Navone | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Mariano Navone | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 23/34 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 35% | 8/23 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 19/57 | 46% | 24/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 52% | 17/33 | 48% | 14/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 14/21 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 53% | 8/15 | 67% | 10/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 84% | 26/31 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 23/31 | 67% | 18/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Navone 0, Carreno Busta 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Navone
🪃 Counterpuncher
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 1,152 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Oct 8, 2026
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 1st Round
May 28, 2024
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Navone | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Mariano Navone | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 13/14 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 3 or more | 36% | 5/14 | 50% | 6/12 |
| 5 or more | 21% | 3/14 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Navone | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–7 | 6–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.46 | 2.47 |
| ROI % | +25.6% | -9.8% |
| Units P/L | +3.59u | -1.18u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Navone | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 6 |
| Distance | 663 mi · 1,067 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Navone has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Busta's 30%).
| Opponent | Navone | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | W 76 76 | L 36 64 16 |
| Matteo Berrettini | W 36 63 64 76 | L 36 46 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 46 57 | L 67 16 |
| Valentin Royer | W 62 76 | L 61 57 26 |
| Quentin Halys | L 57 36 | L 64 57 36 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | W 60 63 | W 64 76 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | L 26 57 | L 63 57 57 |
| Denis Shapovalov | W 64 62 | W 63 76 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 36 62 46 61 67 | L 57 64 62 67 36 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 57 76 75 | W 63 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Pablo Carreno Busta
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Alex de Minaur
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Matteo Berrettini
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Novak Djokovic
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
James Duckworth
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Alexander Blockx
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Raphael Collignon
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–64 matches
| Metric | Navone | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 58% | 62% |
| Sets won | 55% | 58% |
| Games won | 53% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Navone | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Navone | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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