Marco Trungelliti vs Thiago MonteiroPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Marco Trungelliti and Thiago Monteiro have met 5 times since 2018; Thiago Monteiro leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at Biella in 2018 on clay. On clay courts Monteiro leads 3–2. Monteiro has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Trungelliti has taken 6 sets to Monteiro's 6. Their most recent meeting: Thiago Monteiro won at Szczecin Challenger (2026).
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Maia Challenger
- Level
- ATP Challenger Tour
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Clay
- Date & time
- October 13 · 6:00 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 1.66 or shorter, Marco Trungelliti has won 81 of 112 (72%). The price implied 63%, so Marco Trungelliti has beaten it by 9 points.
At 2.11 or longer, Thiago Monteiro has won 27 of 81 (33%). The price implied 37%, so Thiago Monteiro has fallen 4 points short of it.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Thiago Monteiro meets Marco Trungelliti in the first round of the Maia Challenger on October 13, a clay court meeting between world number 235 and number 90. The two have met five times, with Monteiro holding a 3-2 record in their head-to-head. Monteiro has had seven days to rest since his last match; Trungelliti played more recently and compiled three matches in the past two weeks.
Both players are running through quiet stretches. Monteiro has lost his last three matches and won 2 of his last 10 overall. Trungelliti carries a two-match losing streak and holds identical 50% and 40% win rates over his last ten and five matches respectively. On clay, the records diverge: Monteiro has won 13 of 22 matches at 65%, while Trungelliti has managed 9 wins in 20 clay outings for 45%.
Monteiro operates primarily from the baseline and builds points with consistency rather than aggression. Trungelliti leads with aggressive play from the start of points and relies on early court position. Clay generally rewards baseline play and sustained rallies, a dynamic that may suit Monteiro's approach; Trungelliti must convert his aggressive starts into quick points or risk grinding exchanges where his strength diminishes.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Trungelliti | Monteiro | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Marco Trungelliti | Thiago Monteiro | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 53% | 18/34 | 56% | 19/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 48% | 14/29 | 48% | 10/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 48% | 30/63 | 45% | 25/55 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 28% | 9/32 | 41% | 15/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 63% | 17/27 | 73% | 11/15 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 47% | 15/32 | 48% | 11/23 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 81% | 26/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 53% | 18/34 | 59% | 19/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Trungelliti 2, Monteiro 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Trungelliti
🏹 Frontrunner
Monteiro
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 🎯 Baseliner is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 307 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Sep 19, 2026
Szczecin Challenger
C Clay · Semifinals
Jul 12, 2023
Salzburg Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Apr 16, 2022
Madrid Challenger
C Clay · Semifinals
Sep 16, 2021
Szczecin Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Sep 16, 2018
Biella
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Trungelliti | Monteiro | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Marco Trungelliti | Thiago Monteiro | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 14/14 | 88% | 15/17 |
| 3 or more | 79% | 11/14 | 77% | 13/17 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 7/14 | 41% | 7/17 |
| 10 or more | 14% | 2/14 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Trungelliti | Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–8 | 15–7 |
| Avg odds | 2.47 | 1.64 |
| ROI % | +3.3% | +7.5% |
| Units P/L | +0.53u | +1.66u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Trungelliti | Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 6 |
| Distance | 5,160 mi · 8,304 km | 673 mi · 1,083 km |
| Route | POL → CHN | POL → ITA |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 4 shared opponents, both Trungelliti and Monteiro posted a 75% win rate.
| Opponent | Trungelliti | Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| Diego Dedura | L 26 36 | W 64 62 |
| Pol Martin Tiffon | W 64 62 | W 62 36 76 |
| Andrej Nedic | W 26 63 63 | W 36 64 61 |
| Henrique Rocha | W 76 62 | L 06 76 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Alex Molcan
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Martin Landaluce
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Thiago Monteiro
Szczecin Challenger · Semifinals
Sep 19
Marco Cecchinato
Szczecin Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Filip Pieczonka
Szczecin Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 17
Sean Cuenin
Szczecin Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 15
Tiago Pereira
Seville Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Elmer Moller
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 5
Mika Petkovic
Genoa 2 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 22
Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo
Szczecin Challenger · Final
Sep 20
Marco Trungelliti
Szczecin Challenger · Semifinals
Sep 19
Diego Dedura
Szczecin Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Vitaliy Sachko
Szczecin Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 16
Stefano Travaglia
Szczecin Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 14
Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva
Tulln Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 55–68 matches
| Metric | Trungelliti | Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 53% | 62% |
| Sets won | 52% | 58% |
| Games won | 51% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Trungelliti | Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 2 | 3 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Trungelliti | Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 2 | 3 |