Mackenzie McDonald vs Taro DanielPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Mackenzie McDonald and Taro Daniel have met 5 times since 2018; Taro Daniel leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Daniel leads 2–1. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings McDonald has taken 4 sets to Daniel's 6. Their most recent meeting: Taro Daniel won at Cagliari Challenger (2023).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | McDonald | Daniel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Mackenzie McDonald | Taro Daniel | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 65% | 13/20 | 73% | 29/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 9/28 | 38% | 8/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 16/48 | 31% | 19/61 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 42% | 11/26 | 60% | 15/25 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 37% | 7/19 | 77% | 23/30 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 24% | 4/17 | 53% | 10/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 74% | 14/19 | 83% | 35/42 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 68% | 13/19 | 69% | 29/42 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (McDonald 2, Daniel 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Daniel
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
⚙️ Grinder vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 708 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
May 4, 2023
Cagliari Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Feb 14, 2023
Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach
H Hard · 1st Round
Mar 3, 2020
Indian Wells Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Apr 8, 2019
Barcelona
C Clay · Round of 64
Mar 8, 2018
ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | McDonald | Daniel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Mackenzie McDonald | Taro Daniel | ||
| 1 or more | 86% | 6/7 | 100% | 13/13 |
| 3 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 85% | 11/13 |
| 5 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | McDonald | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–7 | 10–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.21 | 1.73 |
| ROI % | -56.3% | +5.1% |
| Units P/L | -5.63u | +0.82u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | McDonald | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 3 |
| Matches | 1 | 6 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 2,283 mi · 3,674 km |
| Route | POR | CHN → JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Daniel has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs McDonald's 0%).
| Opponent | McDonald | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Shintaro Mochizuki | L 67 57 | L 62 26 26 |
| Jacob Fearnley | L 46 57 | W 64 61 |
| Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | L 46 67 | W 64 62 |
| Rinky Hijikata | L 36 67 | L 36 76 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Ryan Nijboer
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Toby Samuel
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Thiago Seyboth Wild
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Stefano Napolitano
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Yibing Wu
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Shintaro Mochizuki
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Fabian Marozsan
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Dane Sweeny
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round
Sep 24
Hayato Matsuoka
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 23
Jake Delaney
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Marat Sharipov
Shanghai Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 9
Matthew Dellavedova
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–61 matches
| Metric | McDonald | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 41% | 66% |
| Sets won | 43% | 62% |
| Games won | 49% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | McDonald | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 2 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | McDonald | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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