Mackenzie McDonald vs Taro DanielPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Mackenzie McDonald and Taro Daniel have met 5 times since 2018; Taro Daniel leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Daniel leads 2–1. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings McDonald has taken 4 sets to Daniel's 6. Their most recent meeting: Taro Daniel won at Cagliari Challenger (2023).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | McDonald | Daniel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Mackenzie McDonald | Taro Daniel | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 17/25 | 71% | 25/35 |
| Wins a set when losing | 24% | 6/25 | 38% | 8/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 28% | 14/50 | 32% | 18/56 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 15/30 | 59% | 10/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 29% | 5/17 | 74% | 25/34 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 41% | 7/17 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 87% | 20/23 | 88% | 29/33 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 17/23 | 76% | 25/33 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (McDonald 2, Daniel 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Daniel
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
⚙️ Grinder vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 279 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
May 4, 2023
Cagliari Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Feb 14, 2023
Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach
H Hard · 1st Round
Mar 3, 2020
Indian Wells Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Apr 8, 2019
Barcelona
C Clay · Round of 64
Mar 8, 2018
ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | McDonald | Daniel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Mackenzie McDonald | Taro Daniel | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 8/8 | 100% | 20/20 |
| 3 or more | 50% | 4/8 | 45% | 9/20 |
| 5 or more | 38% | 3/8 | 25% | 5/20 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/20 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/20 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/20 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | McDonald | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–6 | 16–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.96 | 2.09 |
| ROI % | -24.7% | +63.8% |
| Units P/L | -2.72u | +12.76u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | McDonald | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 1 | 4 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CAN | CAN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
McDonald has a higher win rate against shared opponents (40% vs Daniel's 20%).
| Opponent | McDonald | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Fearnley | L 46 57 | W 64 61 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 64 36 63 | L 67 46 |
| Rinky Hijikata | L 36 67 | L 36 76 26 |
| Rei Sakamoto | L 46 36 | L 67 26 |
| Petr Bar Biryukov | W 62 63 | L 67 64 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Adam Walton
Newport Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 8
Patrick Kypson
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Roberto Carballes Baena
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Felipe Meligeni Alves
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Christopher O'Connell
Wimbledon · 3rd Round Qualifying
Jun 25
Shintaro Mochizuki
Nottingham 2 Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 16
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Stefanos Sakellaridis
Quebec City Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 22
Jan Choinski
Quebec City Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Duncan Chan
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 19
Botic van de Zandschulp
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round
Jul 14
Carlos Sanchez Jover
Bastad
Jul 13
Federico Coria
Bastad
Jul 12
Valentin Royer
Iasi Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 53–56 matches
| Metric | McDonald | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 49% | 63% |
| Sets won | 48% | 60% |
| Games won | 50% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | McDonald | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 2 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | McDonald | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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