Mackenzie McDonald vs Stefano NapolitanoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Mackenzie McDonald
#169 · 31 yrs · R
31 meeting · sets 2–0
🇮🇹Stefano Napolitano
#284 · 31 yrs · R
4wMackenzie McDonald and Stefano Napolitano have met 1 time since 2026; Mackenzie McDonald leads 1–0. Across all meetings McDonald has taken 2 sets to Napolitano's 0. Their most recent meeting: Mackenzie McDonald won at U.S. Open - New York (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | McDonald | Napolitano | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Mackenzie McDonald | Stefano Napolitano | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 65% | 13/20 | 69% | 25/36 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 9/28 | 33% | 7/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 16/48 | 32% | 18/57 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 42% | 11/26 | 58% | 18/31 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 37% | 7/19 | 60% | 12/20 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 24% | 4/17 | 48% | 10/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 74% | 14/19 | 91% | 32/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 68% | 13/19 | 71% | 25/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (McDonald 1, Napolitano 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Napolitano
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 682 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Stefano Napolitano.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Aug 25, 2026
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | McDonald | Napolitano | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Mackenzie McDonald | Stefano Napolitano | ||
| 1 or more | 86% | 6/7 | 86% | 6/7 |
| 3 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 43% | 3/7 |
| 5 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 29% | 2/7 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | McDonald | Napolitano |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–7 | 1–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.21 | 2.38 |
| ROI % | -56.3% | -78.7% |
| Units P/L | -5.63u | -5.51u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | McDonald | Napolitano |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 1 | 2 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | POR | ITA |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Napolitano has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs McDonald's 50%).
| Opponent | McDonald | Napolitano |
|---|---|---|
| Vitaliy Sachko | W 62 61 | W 75 62 |
| Niels Visker | L 67 57 | W 64 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Ryan Nijboer
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Toby Samuel
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Thiago Seyboth Wild
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Stefano Napolitano
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Yibing Wu
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Oriol Roca Batalla
Biella Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 16
Alex Marti Pujolras
Biella Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 15
Stefano Travaglia
Genoa Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Henry Bernet
Como Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 1
Mackenzie McDonald
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Ugo Blanchet
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 17
Alexandre Muller
San Marino Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 27
Zsombor Piros
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 20
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–57 matches
| Metric | McDonald | Napolitano |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 41% | 63% |
| Sets won | 43% | 60% |
| Games won | 49% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | McDonald | Napolitano |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | McDonald | Napolitano |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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