Mackenzie McDonald vs Ryan PenistonPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Mackenzie McDonald and Ryan Peniston have met 1 time since 2025; Mackenzie McDonald leads 1–0. Across all meetings McDonald has taken 2 sets to Peniston's 0. Their most recent meeting: Mackenzie McDonald won at 's-Hertogenbosch (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | McDonald | Peniston | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Mackenzie McDonald | Ryan Peniston | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 65% | 13/20 | 67% | 4/6 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 9/28 | 27% | 4/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 16/48 | 29% | 6/21 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 42% | 11/26 | 40% | 4/10 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 37% | 7/19 | 25% | 2/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 24% | 4/17 | 17% | 1/6 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 74% | 14/19 | 75% | 6/8 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 68% | 13/19 | 50% | 4/8 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (McDonald 1, Peniston 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Peniston
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matchup analysis
⚙️ Grinder vs ⚔️ The Gladiator is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 233 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Jun 8, 2025
's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · 1st Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | McDonald | Peniston | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Mackenzie McDonald | Ryan Peniston | ||
| 1 or more | 86% | 6/7 | 71% | 5/7 |
| 3 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 5 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | McDonald | Peniston |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–7 | 1–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.21 | 2.21 |
| ROI % | -56.3% | -74.2% |
| Units P/L | -5.63u | -4.45u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | McDonald | Peniston |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 1 | 3 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 461 mi · 742 km |
| Route | POR | FRA |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Ryan Nijboer
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Toby Samuel
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Thiago Seyboth Wild
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Stefano Napolitano
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Yibing Wu
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Dimitar Kuzmanov
Olbia Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Filippo Romano
Mouilleron-Le-Captif Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jelle Sels
Mouilleron-Le-Captif Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 27
Daniel Jade
St. Tropez Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 20
Daniil Glinka
Cassis Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Carl Emil Overbeck
Manacor Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 31
Ivan Ivanov
Roehampton 2 Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 24
Max Basing
M25 Vila Real de Santo Antonio 2 · Quarterfinals
Feb 20
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 21–51 matches
| Metric | McDonald | Peniston |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 41% | 29% |
| Sets won | 43% | 33% |
| Games won | 49% | 45% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | McDonald | Peniston |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | McDonald | Peniston |
|---|---|---|
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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