Luca Nardi vs Tomas MachacPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Luca Nardi and Tomas Machac have met 4 times since 2020; Tomas Machac leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Ortisei Challenger in 2020 on hard. On hard courts Machac leads 3–1. Machac has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Nardi has taken 2 sets to Machac's 7. Their most recent meeting: Tomas Machac won at U.S. Open - New York (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nardi | Machac | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Luca Nardi | Tomas Machac | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 76% | 13/17 | 38% | 5/13 |
| Wins a set when losing | 65% | 13/20 | 36% | 5/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 17/37 | 48% | 13/27 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 10/21 | 21% | 3/14 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 10/15 | 54% | 7/13 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 36% | 8/22 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 65% | 13/20 | 100% | 8/8 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 13/20 | 63% | 5/8 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nardi 1, Machac 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nardi
🏹 Frontrunner
Machac
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 1,017 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Aug 24, 2025
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
Oct 6, 2023
Mouilleron-Le-Captif Challenger
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Nov 1, 2022
Bergamo Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Nov 18, 2020
Ortisei Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nardi | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 0–1 | 2–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.58 | 1.95 |
| ROI % | -100.0% | -56.4% |
| Units P/L | -1.00u | -4.51u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nardi | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 1 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 5 |
| Distance | — | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | — | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Nardi has a higher win rate against shared opponents (33% vs Machac's 0%).
| Opponent | Nardi | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Carreno Busta | L 76 46 67 | L 36 26 |
| Jiri Lehecka | L 64 46 26 | L 46 76 26 |
| Flavio Cobolli | W 62 63 | L 16 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Villena Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 5
Federico Cina
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Andrea Guerrieri
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round Qualifying
Jul 11
Otto Virtanen
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 24
Rio Noguchi
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 22
Remy Bertola
Nottingham 2 Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 15
Giles Hussey
Lexus Nottingham Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 14
Oscar Weightman
Lexus Nottingham Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 13
Alexander Bublik
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Zhizhen Zhang
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Alex Molcan
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Arthur Gea
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yannick Hanfmann
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Toby Samuel
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Mees Rottgering
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Pablo Carreno Busta
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 33–38 matches
| Metric | Nardi | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 45% | 48% |
| Sets won | 51% | 48% |
| Games won | 50% | 47% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nardi | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nardi | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 3 |
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