Kei Nishikori vs Mackenzie McDonaldPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Kei Nishikori and Mackenzie McDonald have met 4 times since 2018; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Dallas in 2018 on hard. On hard courts they are level 2–2. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Nishikori leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Nishikori has taken 7 sets to McDonald's 6. Their most recent meeting: Mackenzie McDonald won at Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nishikori | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Kei Nishikori | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 45% | 5/11 | 65% | 13/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 4/10 | 32% | 9/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 48% | 10/21 | 33% | 16/48 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 42% | 5/12 | 42% | 11/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 37% | 7/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 40% | 2/5 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 9/11 | 74% | 14/19 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 45% | 5/11 | 68% | 13/19 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nishikori 1, McDonald 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nishikori
🏹 Frontrunner
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs ⚙️ Grinder is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 166 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Feb 11, 2025
Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach
H Hard · 1st Round
Sep 2, 2021
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 7, 2021
Citi Open - Washington
H Hard · Semifinals
Feb 4, 2018
Dallas
H Hard · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nishikori | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Kei Nishikori | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| 1 or more | 67% | 4/6 | 86% | 6/7 |
| 3 or more | 33% | 2/6 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 5 or more | 17% | 1/6 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nishikori | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–5 | 3–7 |
| Avg odds | 2.70 | 2.21 |
| ROI % | -15.7% | -56.3% |
| Units P/L | -1.41u | -5.63u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nishikori | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | JPN | POR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
McDonald has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Nishikori's 0%).
| Opponent | Nishikori | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Marco Trungelliti | L 64 57 36 | W 26 62 75 |
| Yibing Wu | L 36 63 16 | L 67 61 57 |
| Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | L 63 46 26 | W 36 63 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Frances Tiafoe
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Rei Sakamoto
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Michael Antonius
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 27
Sebastian Ofner
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Marco Trungelliti
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 12
Francisco Comesana
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Michael Zheng
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 1
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Ryan Nijboer
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Toby Samuel
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Thiago Seyboth Wild
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Stefano Napolitano
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Yibing Wu
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 21–51 matches
| Metric | Nishikori | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 52% | 41% |
| Sets won | 50% | 43% |
| Games won | 50% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nishikori | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nishikori | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 2 |
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