Kei Nishikori vs Mackenzie McDonaldPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Kei Nishikori and Mackenzie McDonald have met 4 times since 2018; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Dallas in 2018 on hard. On hard courts they are level 2–2. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Nishikori leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Nishikori has taken 7 sets to McDonald's 6. Their most recent meeting: Mackenzie McDonald won at Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nishikori | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Kei Nishikori | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 4/8 | 68% | 17/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 3/6 | 24% | 6/25 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 50% | 7/14 | 28% | 14/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 44% | 4/9 | 50% | 15/30 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 80% | 4/5 | 29% | 5/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 2/4 | 41% | 7/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 86% | 6/7 | 87% | 20/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 57% | 4/7 | 74% | 17/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nishikori 1, McDonald 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nishikori
🎯 Baseliner
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 460 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Kei Nishikori.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Feb 11, 2025
Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach
H Hard · 1st Round
Sep 2, 2021
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 7, 2021
Citi Open - Washington
H Hard · Semifinals
Feb 4, 2018
Dallas
H Hard · Final
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nishikori | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 1–1 | 5–6 |
| Avg odds | 3.62 | 1.96 |
| ROI % | +10.5% | -24.7% |
| Units P/L | +0.21u | -2.72u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nishikori | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 1 |
| Events | — | 1 |
| Matches | — | 1 |
| Distance | — | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | — | CAN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
McDonald has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Nishikori's 0%).
| Opponent | Nishikori | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | L 63 46 26 | W 36 63 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Juncheng Shang
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Jack Kennedy
Savannah Challenger · 2nd Round
Apr 22
Colton Smith
Savannah Challenger · 1st Round
Apr 20
Yibing Wu
Sarasota Challenger · 2nd Round
Apr 9
Nicolas Kicker
Sarasota Challenger · 1st Round
Apr 7
Clement Tabur
Cherbourg Challenger · 1st Round
Mar 9
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Thionville Challenger · 2nd Round
Mar 4
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Adam Walton
Newport Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 8
Patrick Kypson
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Roberto Carballes Baena
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Felipe Meligeni Alves
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Christopher O'Connell
Wimbledon · 3rd Round Qualifying
Jun 25
Shintaro Mochizuki
Nottingham 2 Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 14–53 matches
| Metric | Nishikori | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 49% |
| Sets won | 54% | 48% |
| Games won | 52% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nishikori | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nishikori | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 2 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.