Jelena Ostapenko vs Tatjana MariaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇱🇻Jelena Ostapenko
#31 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
1 meeting · sets 1–2
🇩🇪Tatjana Maria
#79 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed
Jelena Ostapenko and Tatjana Maria have met 1 time since 2022; Tatjana Maria leads 1–0. Across all meetings Ostapenko has taken 1 sets to Maria's 2. Their most recent meeting: Tatjana Maria won at Wimbledon - London (2022).
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- U.S. Open - New York
- Level
- Grand Slam
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- September 1 · 11:00 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
Priced around 2.35 or longer, Tatjana Maria has won 31 of 99 matches, 31% against a fair-price expectation of 32%.
Priced around 1.58 or shorter, Jelena Ostapenko has won 106 of 149 matches, 71% against a fair-price expectation of 66%.
Book prices only, with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Sample sizes below ten are not shown.
Jelena Ostapenko and Tatjana Maria meet next at the U.S. Open - New York on September 1 on hard.
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ostapenko | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jelena Ostapenko | Tatjana Maria | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 15/22 | 97% | 29/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 53% | 9/17 | 23% | 7/30 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 41% | 16/39 | 13% | 8/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 12/22 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 9/15 | 39% | 13/33 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 3/6 | 50% | 5/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 70% | 16/23 | 88% | 30/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 15/23 | 85% | 29/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ostapenko 0, Maria 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ostapenko
👑 The Complete Package
Maria
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,896 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Jul 3, 2022
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 4th Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Ostapenko | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jelena Ostapenko | Tatjana Maria | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 91% | 21/23 |
| 3 or more | 86% | 6/7 | 61% | 14/23 |
| 5 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 30% | 7/23 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 9% | 2/23 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/23 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/23 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ostapenko | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–2 | 17–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.74 | 2.01 |
| ROI % | -7.7% | +8.1% |
| Units P/L | -0.54u | +2.03u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ostapenko | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 1 | 3 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Maria has a higher win rate against shared opponents (78% vs Ostapenko's 67%).
| Opponent | Ostapenko | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Dayana Yastremska | W 64 64 | W 61 62 |
| Katie Volynets | W 64 76 | W 62 64 |
| Lucrezia Stefanini | W 60 61 | W 61 60 |
| Zeynep Sonmez | W 63 60 | W 64 62 |
| Anastasia Zakharova | W 67 63 64 | W 62 61 |
| Jasmine Paolini | W 57 62 75 | W 64 63 |
| Magda Linette | L 26 62 26 | W 60 63 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 16 67 | L 26 06 |
| Hailey Baptiste | L 36 46 | L 57 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Magdalena Frech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Antonia Ruzic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Harriet Dart
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Zeynep Sonmez
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · Quarterfinals
Jun 25
Panna Udvardy
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 2nd Round
Jun 24
Francesca Jones
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 22
Magda Linette
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Dayana Yastremska
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Caty Mcnally
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Renata Zarazua
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Talia Gibson
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 1st Round
Jul 28
Katie Volynets
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Final
Jul 12
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Semifinals
Jul 11
Lucrezia Stefanini
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–60 matches
| Metric | Ostapenko | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 56% | 50% |
| Sets won | 56% | 52% |
| Games won | 52% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Ostapenko | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Ostapenko | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Grass | 0 | 1 |