Jelena Ostapenko vs Tatjana MariaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇱🇻Jelena Ostapenko
#34 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 2–4
🇩🇪Tatjana Maria
#71 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed
4TitleJelena Ostapenko and Tatjana Maria have met 3 times since 2022; Tatjana Maria leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Wimbledon - London in 2022 on grass. On grass courts Maria leads 2–0. Maria has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Ostapenko has taken 2 sets to Maria's 4. Their most recent meeting: Tatjana Maria won at U.S. Open - New York (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ostapenko | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jelena Ostapenko | Tatjana Maria | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 17/24 | 94% | 30/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 56% | 10/18 | 29% | 8/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 40% | 17/42 | 17% | 10/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 57% | 13/23 | 82% | 23/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 65% | 11/17 | 45% | 14/31 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 3/6 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 69% | 18/26 | 86% | 31/36 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 17/26 | 83% | 30/36 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ostapenko 0, Maria 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ostapenko
💥 Big Hitter
Maria
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Jelena Ostapenko and Tatjana Maria are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,594 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Sep 3, 2026
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
Jun 26, 2026
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne
G Grass · Semifinals
Jul 3, 2022
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 4th Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Ostapenko | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jelena Ostapenko | Tatjana Maria | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 6/6 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 83% | 5/6 | 58% | 7/12 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 3/6 | 42% | 5/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 8% | 1/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ostapenko | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–4 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.89 | 2.04 |
| ROI % | -34.0% | -6.7% |
| Units P/L | -2.04u | -0.87u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ostapenko | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 5 |
| Distance | 592 mi · 952 km | — |
| Route | POR → ROU | UKR → TUR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Maria has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Ostapenko's 50%).
| Opponent | Ostapenko | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Elise Mertens | L 26 63 36 | L 57 06 |
| Anastasia Zakharova | W 64 61 | W 62 61 |
| Dayana Yastremska | W 64 64 | W 61 62 |
| Katie Volynets | W 64 76 | W 62 64 |
| Lucrezia Stefanini | W 60 61 | W 61 60 |
| Tereza Valentova | L | W 63 75 |
| Jasmine Paolini | W 57 62 75 | W 64 63 |
| Magda Linette | L 26 62 26 | W 60 63 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 16 67 | L 26 06 |
| Hailey Baptiste | L 36 46 | L 57 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Elise Mertens
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Paula Badosa
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Taylah Preston
Korea Open - Seoul · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Anastasia Zakharova
Korea Open - Seoul · 1st Round
Sep 22
Tatjana Maria
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Magdalena Frech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Madison Brengle
W100 Templeton · Final
Oct 4
Malaika Rapolu
W100 Templeton · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Lea Ma
W100 Templeton · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Lucciana Perez Alarcon
W100 Templeton · 1st Round
Sep 30
Taylor Townsend
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 1st Round
Sep 14
Nikola Bartunkova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Jelena Ostapenko
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–60 matches
| Metric | Ostapenko | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 53% |
| Sets won | 57% | 55% |
| Games won | 53% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Ostapenko | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| WTA 250 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Ostapenko | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 2 |
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