Jelena Ostapenko vs Liudmila SamsonovaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇱🇻Jelena Ostapenko
#34 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 6–4
🇷🇺Liudmila Samsonova
#43 · 27 yrs · Right-Handed
Jelena Ostapenko and Liudmila Samsonova have met 5 times since 2020; Jelena Ostapenko leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at Australian Open - Melbourne in 2020 on hard. On hard courts Ostapenko leads 3–1. Across all meetings Ostapenko has taken 6 sets to Samsonova's 4. Their most recent meeting: Jelena Ostapenko won at Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ostapenko | Samsonova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jelena Ostapenko | Liudmila Samsonova | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 17/24 | 65% | 13/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 56% | 10/18 | 58% | 14/24 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 40% | 17/42 | 48% | 21/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 57% | 13/23 | 46% | 11/24 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 65% | 11/17 | 60% | 12/20 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 3/6 | 42% | 5/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 69% | 18/26 | 64% | 18/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 17/26 | 46% | 13/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ostapenko 3, Samsonova 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ostapenko
💥 Big Hitter
Samsonova
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 3,072 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Feb 11, 2025
Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha
H Hard · 2nd Round
Oct 6, 2023
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Apr 29, 2023
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 3rd Round
Sep 18, 2021
BGL Luxembourg Open - Luxembourg
H Hard · Semifinals
Jan 21, 2020
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Ostapenko | Samsonova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jelena Ostapenko | Liudmila Samsonova | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 6/6 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 3 or more | 83% | 5/6 | 53% | 8/15 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 3/6 | 40% | 6/15 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ostapenko | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–4 | 10–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.89 | 2.21 |
| ROI % | -34.0% | +20.9% |
| Units P/L | -2.04u | +3.35u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ostapenko | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 6 |
| Distance | 592 mi · 952 km | 7,530 mi · 12,118 km |
| Route | POR → ROU | UKR → ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Ostapenko has a higher win rate against shared opponents (29% vs Samsonova's 14%).
| Opponent | Ostapenko | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Elise Mertens | L 26 63 36 | L 61 36 06 |
| Magdalena Frech | L 16 36 | L 36 64 67 |
| Antonia Ruzic | W 62 60 | W 60 64 |
| Harriet Dart | W 63 36 64 | L 75 46 36 |
| Anastasia Potapova | L 64 46 46 | L 36 26 |
| Hailey Baptiste | L 36 46 | L 36 57 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 64 36 26 | L 36 67 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Elise Mertens
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Paula Badosa
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Taylah Preston
Korea Open - Seoul · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Anastasia Zakharova
Korea Open - Seoul · 1st Round
Sep 22
Tatjana Maria
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Magdalena Frech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Karolina Muchova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Linda Fruhvirtova
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Peyton Stearns
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · Semifinals
Sep 19
Marta Kostyuk
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · Quarterfinals
Sep 17
Kayla Day
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 2nd Round
Sep 17
Elsa Jacquemot
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 1st Round
Sep 15
Maya Joint
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–44 matches
| Metric | Ostapenko | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 45% |
| Sets won | 57% | 50% |
| Games won | 53% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Ostapenko | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 250 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Ostapenko | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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