Jan-Lennard Struff vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Jan-Lennard Struff and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 6 times since 2015; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at Szczecin in 2015 on clay. On hard courts Busta leads 3–1. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Busta has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Struff has taken 4 sets to Busta's 9. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Davis Cup, World Group, SF, ESP-GER 2-1 (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Struff | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jan-Lennard Struff | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 61% | 14/23 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 48% | 12/25 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 44% | 21/48 | 46% | 24/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 32% | 8/25 | 48% | 14/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 52% | 11/21 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 11/22 | 67% | 10/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 77% | 17/22 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 64% | 14/22 | 67% | 18/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Struff 1, Carreno Busta 4).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Struff
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 54% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 1,115 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Jan-Lennard Struff.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Nov 22, 2025
Davis Cup, World Group, SF, ESP-GER 2-1
H Hard · Rubber 1
Nov 3, 2020
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jul 16, 2019
Hamburg
C Clay · Round of 16
Jan 10, 2019
Auckland
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 12, 2016
Winston-Salem
H Hard · Round of 32
Sep 14, 2015
Szczecin
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Struff | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jan-Lennard Struff | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 11/11 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 3 or more | 91% | 10/11 | 50% | 6/12 |
| 5 or more | 82% | 9/11 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 10 or more | 46% | 5/11 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 27% | 3/11 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Struff | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–6 | 6–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.86 | 2.47 |
| ROI % | -16.9% | -9.8% |
| Units P/L | -1.86u | -1.18u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Struff | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 6 |
| Distance | 663 mi · 1,067 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Struff's 50%).
| Opponent | Struff | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Medvedev | L 64 46 36 | L 46 26 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | L 36 46 | W 46 76 64 |
| Martin Landaluce | W 64 64 | W 62 36 63 |
| Mariano Navone | L 06 36 | W 46 75 63 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | W 61 64 | W 76 75 36 64 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | W 64 63 63 | L 63 57 57 |
| Jiri Lehecka | L 67 36 | L 16 67 64 26 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 61 76 46 26 75 | W 57 75 75 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 67 26 | L 57 64 62 67 36 |
| Francisco Comesana | W 62 64 | W 64 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Daniil Medvedev
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Martin Landaluce
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Thiago Agustin Tirante
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Sep 30
Francisco Cerundolo
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Alejandro Tabilo
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–58 matches
| Metric | Struff | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 50% | 62% |
| Sets won | 51% | 58% |
| Games won | 50% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Struff | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 1 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Struff | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 3 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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