Jan-Lennard Struff vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Jan-Lennard Struff and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 6 times since 2015; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at Szczecin in 2015 on clay. On hard courts Busta leads 3–1. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Busta has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Struff has taken 4 sets to Busta's 9. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Davis Cup, World Group, SF, ESP-GER 2-1 (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Struff | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jan-Lennard Struff | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 55% | 12/22 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 48% | 12/25 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 47% | 22/47 | 45% | 27/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 26% | 7/27 | 47% | 18/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 9/18 | 57% | 12/21 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 46% | 11/24 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 76% | 16/21 | 89% | 31/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 57% | 12/21 | 66% | 23/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Struff 1, Carreno Busta 4).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Struff
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 767 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Nov 22, 2025
Davis Cup, World Group, SF, ESP-GER 2-1
H Hard · Rubber 1
Nov 3, 2020
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jul 16, 2019
Hamburg
C Clay · Round of 16
Jan 10, 2019
Auckland
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 12, 2016
Winston-Salem
H Hard · Round of 32
Sep 14, 2015
Szczecin
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Struff | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jan-Lennard Struff | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 92% | 12/13 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 92% | 12/13 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 69% | 9/13 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 39% | 5/13 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 15% | 2/13 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Struff | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–6 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 3.27 | 2.29 |
| ROI % | +31.9% | +0.8% |
| Units P/L | +4.14u | +0.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Struff | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Struff's 44%).
| Opponent | Struff | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Tabilo | L 36 46 | L 26 16 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 61 76 46 26 75 | W 57 75 75 |
| Martin Landaluce | W 63 16 75 | W 62 36 63 |
| Jiri Lehecka | L 67 36 | W 63 76 63 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 67 26 | L 57 64 62 67 36 |
| Francisco Comesana | W 62 64 | W 64 63 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 36 61 16 | W 63 62 |
| Hugo Grenier | W 60 64 | W 46 61 64 |
| Vit Kopriva | L 64 26 62 36 16 | L 36 61 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alejandro Tabilo
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Alex Michelsen
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Mariano Navone
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Aleksandr Shevchenko
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · 1st Round
Jul 21
Jannik Sinner
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 7
Hubert Hurkacz
Wimbledon · Round of 16
Jul 6
Daniil Medvedev
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 56–65 matches
| Metric | Struff | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 48% | 65% |
| Sets won | 48% | 60% |
| Games won | 49% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Struff | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 1 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Struff | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 3 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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