Hiroki Moriya vs Timofei DerepaskoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Ningboo Challenger
- Level
- ATP Challenger Tour
- Round
- 3rd Round Qualifying
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 26 · 12:30 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 1.33 or shorter, Hiroki Moriya has won 23 of 29 (79%). That is level with the 78% the price implied.
At 3.04 or longer, Timofei Derepasko has won 2 of 13 (15%). The price implied 23%, so Timofei Derepasko has fallen 8 points short of it.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Hiroki Moriya and Timofei Derepasko meet next at the Ningboo Challenger on October 26 on hard.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Moriya | Derepasko | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Hiroki Moriya | Timofei Derepasko | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 55% | 18/33 | 83% | 35/42 |
| Wins a set when losing | 26% | 9/35 | 31% | 12/39 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 35% | 24/68 | 23% | 19/81 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 10/30 | 49% | 24/49 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 47% | 14/30 | 38% | 10/26 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 36% | 10/28 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 24/27 | 83% | 39/47 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 18/27 | 74% | 35/47 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Moriya
🪃 Counterpuncher
Derepasko
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,701 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Timofei Derepasko.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Moriya and Derepasko have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Moriya | Derepasko | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Hiroki Moriya | Timofei Derepasko | ||
| 1 or more | 86% | 12/14 | 95% | 18/19 |
| 3 or more | 43% | 6/14 | 74% | 14/19 |
| 5 or more | 21% | 3/14 | 37% | 7/19 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 11% | 2/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Moriya | Derepasko |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–7 | 12–9 |
| Avg odds | 2.02 | 2.34 |
| ROI % | -17.9% | -11.7% |
| Units P/L | -2.50u | -2.46u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Moriya | Derepasko |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 2 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Moriya has a higher win rate against shared opponents (75% vs Derepasko's 50%).
| Opponent | Moriya | Derepasko |
|---|---|---|
| Taisei Ichikawa | W 64 64 | W 75 63 |
| Omar Jasika | L 26 36 | L 36 26 |
| Dominik Palan | W 46 61 62 | W 62 63 |
| Philip Sekulic | W 64 76 | L 57 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Taisei Ichikawa
Ningboo Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 25
Omar Jasika
Guangzhou Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 18
Keisuke Saitoh
Wuning 3 Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 7
Keegan Smith
Wuning 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Omar Jasika
Jingshan Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Jia Qi Huang
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Blake Ellis
Phan Thiet 4 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 15
Yuta Shimizu
Phan Thiet 3 Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Xiaoyin Yang
Ningboo Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 25
Linang Xiao
M15 Shenzhen · 2nd Round
Oct 22
Kristjan Tamm
M15 Shenzhen · 1st Round
Oct 21
Isaac Becroft
M25 Qian Daohu · 1st Round
Oct 14
Omar Jasika
Wuning 3 Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Filip Peliwo
Wuning 3 Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 7
Sergey Fomin
Wuning 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 5
Matic Dimic
M15 Telavi · 1st Round
Sep 28
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 68–81 matches
| Metric | Moriya | Derepasko |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 49% | 52% |
| Sets won | 47% | 53% |
| Games won | 49% | 51% |