Hiroki Moriya vs Keegan SmithPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Hiroki Moriya and Keegan Smith have met 1 time since 2026; Hiroki Moriya leads 1–0. Across all meetings Moriya has taken 2 sets to Smith's 1. Their most recent meeting: Hiroki Moriya won at Wuning 3 Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Moriya | Smith | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Hiroki Moriya | Keegan Smith | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 53% | 17/32 | 69% | 42/61 |
| Wins a set when losing | 26% | 9/34 | 46% | 16/35 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 24/66 | 36% | 35/96 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 31% | 9/29 | 54% | 31/57 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 48% | 14/29 | 66% | 21/32 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 36% | 10/28 | 48% | 25/52 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 23/26 | 81% | 51/63 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 17/26 | 67% | 42/63 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Moriya 0, Smith 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Moriya
🪃 Counterpuncher
Smith
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Keegan Smith.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Oct 6, 2026
Wuning 3 Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Moriya | Smith | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Hiroki Moriya | Keegan Smith | ||
| 1 or more | 85% | 11/13 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 46% | 6/13 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 5 or more | 23% | 3/13 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 50% | 6/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 25% | 3/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Moriya | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–7 | 5–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.05 | 1.65 |
| ROI % | -22.1% | -34.4% |
| Units P/L | -2.87u | -3.78u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Moriya | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 3 | 6 |
| Distance | 1,420 mi · 2,285 km | 2,418 mi · 3,891 km |
| Route | VIE → CHN | USA |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Smith has a higher win rate against shared opponents (78% vs Moriya's 56%).
| Opponent | Moriya | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Edward Winter | L 64 26 36 | W 63 46 62 |
| Dominik Palan | W 46 61 62 | W 46 63 64 |
| Hayato Matsuoka | L 57 36 | W 76 46 76 |
| Alex Bolt | L 36 63 36 | W 64 64 |
| Rio Noguchi | L 46 46 | W 63 46 62 |
| Philip Sekulic | W 64 76 | W 62 75 |
| Li Tu | W 16 64 76 | L 63 57 67 |
| Tai Sach | W 67 60 64 | L 61 36 67 |
| Christian Langmo | W 64 63 | W 63 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Keisuke Saitoh
Wuning 3 Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 7
Keegan Smith
Wuning 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Omar Jasika
Jingshan Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Jia Qi Huang
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Blake Ellis
Phan Thiet 4 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 15
Yuta Shimizu
Phan Thiet 3 Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Maximus Jones
Phan Thiet 3 Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 9
Dominik Palan
Phan Thiet 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Hiroki Moriya
Wuning 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Mitchell Krueger
Columbus Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Bryce Nakashima
Columbus Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Kaylan Bigun
Columbus Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dylan Dietrich
San Diego 2 Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Edward Winter
San Diego 2 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 21
Mitchell Krueger
Tiburon Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 15
Alexis Galarneau
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 66–96 matches
| Metric | Moriya | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 48% | 64% |
| Sets won | 47% | 61% |
| Games won | 50% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Moriya | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Moriya | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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