Gael Monfils vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Gael Monfils and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 4 times since 2015; Gael Monfils leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Wimbledon in 2015 on grass. On hard courts Monfils leads 2–1. Across all meetings Monfils has taken 7 sets to Busta's 2. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Moselle Open - Metz (2021).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Monfils | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Gael Monfils | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 3/4 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 57% | 4/7 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 45% | 5/11 | 46% | 24/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 67% | 2/3 | 48% | 14/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 63% | 5/8 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 2/4 | 67% | 10/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 50% | 3/6 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 50% | 3/6 | 67% | 18/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Monfils 2, Carreno Busta 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Monfils
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 54% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 1,115 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Gael Monfils.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Sep 25, 2021
Moselle Open - Metz
H Hard · Semifinals
Aug 6, 2016
ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 64
Mar 5, 2016
ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells
H Hard · Round of 64
Jun 30, 2015
Wimbledon
G Grass · Round of 128
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Monfils | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Gael Monfils | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 5/5 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 5/5 | 50% | 6/12 |
| 5 or more | 80% | 4/5 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 1/5 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 20% | 1/5 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/5 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Monfils | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–3 | 6–6 |
| Avg odds | 3.13 | 2.47 |
| ROI % | +14.8% | -9.8% |
| Units P/L | +0.74u | -1.18u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Monfils | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 1 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 6 |
| Distance | — | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | — | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Monfils has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Busta's 0%).
| Opponent | Monfils | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | L 76 36 46 | L 36 64 16 |
| Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | W 26 61 62 60 | L |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | L 36 46 | L 63 57 57 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | W 67 61 64 | L 46 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Learner Tien
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 4
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Rinky Hijikata
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Learner Tien
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Kamil Majchrzak
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Hugo Gaston
French Open - Paris · 1st Round
May 25
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid · 1st Round
Apr 23
Alexander Bublik
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo · 2nd Round
Apr 7
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 15–58 matches
| Metric | Monfils | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 33% | 62% |
| Sets won | 42% | 58% |
| Games won | 49% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Monfils | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Monfils | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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