Flavio Cobolli vs Luca NardiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Flavio Cobolli and Luca Nardi have met 4 times since 2023; Luca Nardi leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Umag in 2023 on clay. On clay courts they are level 1–1. On hard courts Nardi leads 2–0. Nardi has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Cobolli has taken 4 sets to Nardi's 7. Their most recent meeting: Luca Nardi won at Open Occitanie - Montpellier (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Cobolli | Nardi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Flavio Cobolli | Luca Nardi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 16/28 | 72% | 13/18 |
| Wins a set when losing | 9% | 2/22 | 64% | 14/22 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 28% | 14/50 | 48% | 19/40 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 37% | 11/30 | 48% | 10/21 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 61% | 11/18 | 61% | 11/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 54% | 13/24 | 38% | 9/24 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 24/26 | 65% | 13/20 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 62% | 16/26 | 65% | 13/20 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Cobolli 1, Nardi 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Cobolli
💥 Big Hitter
Nardi
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 554 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Feb 5, 2026
Open Occitanie - Montpellier
H Hard · 2nd Round
May 8, 2025
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 1st Round
Nov 30, 2023
Next Gen ATP Finals - Jeddah
H Hard · Round Robin
Jul 22, 2023
Umag
C Clay · 1st Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Cobolli | Nardi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Flavio Cobolli | Luca Nardi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 15/15 | 67% | 4/6 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 50% | 3/6 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 50% | 3/6 |
| 10 or more | 33% | 5/15 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 15 or more | 7% | 1/15 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/6 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Cobolli | Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–5 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.38 | 1.89 |
| ROI % | +38.9% | -38.1% |
| Units P/L | +5.05u | -3.43u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Cobolli | Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 5 | — |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | — |
| Route | CAN → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Cobolli has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Nardi's 33%).
| Opponent | Cobolli | Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| Yibing Wu | W 64 64 64 | L 57 64 46 26 |
| Andrea Pellegrino | W 64 76 63 | L 64 36 36 |
| Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez | W 76 76 | W 76 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Rafael Jodar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Alexander Blockx
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Miomir Kecmanovic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Yannick Hanfmann
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Arthur Fery
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Alex de Minaur
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Andrea Guerrieri
Umag
Jul 11
Otto Virtanen
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 24
Rio Noguchi
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 22
Remy Bertola
Nottingham 2 Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 15
Giles Hussey
Lexus Nottingham Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 14
Oscar Weightman
Lexus Nottingham Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 13
Jacob Fearnley
Ilkley Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 10
Remy Bertola
Perugia Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 4
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 41–62 matches
| Metric | Cobolli | Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 60% | 44% |
| Sets won | 55% | 50% |
| Games won | 50% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Cobolli | Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Cobolli | Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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