Elias Ymer vs Roberto Carballes BaenaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Elias Ymer and Roberto Carballes Baena have met 5 times since 2015; Elias Ymer leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at Roland Garros in 2015 on clay. On clay courts Ymer leads 3–2. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Ymer leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Ymer has taken 6 sets to Baena's 5. Their most recent meeting: Roberto Carballes Baena won at Seville Challenger (2023).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ymer | Carballes Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elias Ymer | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 55% | 16/29 | 58% | 14/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 10/26 | 43% | 10/23 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 42% | 23/55 | 43% | 20/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 43% | 9/21 | 43% | 12/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 55% | 17/31 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 59% | 17/29 | 44% | 7/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 86% | 25/29 | 83% | 20/24 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 55% | 16/29 | 58% | 14/24 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ymer 2, Carballes Baena 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ymer
💥 Big Hitter
Baena
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,969 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Sep 7, 2023
Seville Challenger
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Aug 20, 2017
Cordenons
C Clay · Final
Oct 5, 2016
Mohammedia
C Clay · Round of 16
May 12, 2016
Bordeaux
C Clay · Round of 16
May 25, 2015
Roland Garros
C Clay · 3rd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Ymer | Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Elias Ymer | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 14/14 | 71% | 5/7 |
| 3 or more | 93% | 13/14 | 14% | 1/7 |
| 5 or more | 64% | 9/14 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 10 or more | 14% | 2/14 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 7% | 1/14 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ymer | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–9 | 2–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.40 | 2.16 |
| ROI % | -55.8% | -54.3% |
| Units P/L | -7.25u | -3.26u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ymer | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 4 | — |
| Matches | 7 | — |
| Distance | 1,797 mi · 2,892 km | — |
| Route | CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Ymer has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Baena's 0%).
| Opponent | Ymer | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Fearnley | W 62 62 | L 67 36 |
| Marc-Andrea Huesler | W 75 57 64 | L 36 67 |
| Mackenzie McDonald | W 76 46 64 | L 46 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Mattia Bellucci
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Federico Cina
Jingshan Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Terence Atmane
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 30
Alexis Galarneau
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Marat Sharipov
Guangzhou Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Luca Castelnuovo
Guangzhou Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 16
Semen Pankin
Guangzhou Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 14
Pavel Kotov
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Alexander Ritschard
Seville Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Pedro Vives Marcos
Porto Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 31
William Rejchtman Vinciguerra
Porto Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 30
Jacob Fearnley
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 24
Olle Wallin
Bonn Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Max Houkes
Bonn Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Marc-Andrea Huesler
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Carlos Sanchez Jover
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round Qualifying
Jul 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–56 matches
| Metric | Ymer | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 52% | 51% |
| Sets won | 50% | 51% |
| Games won | 50% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Ymer | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 2 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Ymer | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 3 | 2 |
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