Elias Ymer vs Roberto Carballes BaenaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Elias Ymer and Roberto Carballes Baena have met 5 times since 2015; Elias Ymer leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at Roland Garros in 2015 on clay. On clay courts Ymer leads 3–2. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Ymer leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Ymer has taken 6 sets to Baena's 5. Their most recent meeting: Roberto Carballes Baena won at Seville Challenger (2023).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ymer | Carballes Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elias Ymer | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 12/21 | 58% | 15/26 |
| Wins a set when losing | 35% | 8/23 | 43% | 9/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 39% | 17/44 | 43% | 20/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 38% | 6/16 | 45% | 13/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 54% | 14/26 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 65% | 13/20 | 50% | 6/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 95% | 19/20 | 85% | 22/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 60% | 12/20 | 58% | 15/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ymer 2, Carballes Baena 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ymer
🎯 Baseliner
Baena
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 790 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Elias Ymer.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Sep 7, 2023
Seville Challenger
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Aug 20, 2017
Cordenons
C Clay · Final
Oct 5, 2016
Mohammedia
C Clay · Round of 16
May 12, 2016
Bordeaux
C Clay · Round of 16
May 25, 2015
Roland Garros
C Clay · 3rd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Ymer | Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Elias Ymer | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 9/9 | 85% | 11/13 |
| 3 or more | 89% | 8/9 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 5 or more | 33% | 3/9 | 8% | 1/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ymer | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–6 | 8–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.28 | 1.74 |
| ROI % | -15.0% | -20.3% |
| Units P/L | -1.65u | -2.84u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ymer | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 3 | — |
| Distance | 1,463 mi · 2,354 km | — |
| Route | USA → JAM | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Ymer has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Baena's 0%).
| Opponent | Ymer | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andrea Huesler | W 75 57 64 | L 36 67 |
| Mackenzie McDonald | W 76 46 64 | L 46 46 |
| Sandro Kopp | L 46 46 | L 36 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Daniil Glinka
Kingston 1 Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 19
Paul Jubb
Kingston 1 Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 17
Federico Cina
Lexington Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 3
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Timofey Skatov
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 24
Henry Searle
Dublin Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 16
Ugo Humbert
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · 1st Round
Jun 8
Niels Visker
Libema Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 7
Olle Wallin
Bonn Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Max Houkes
Bonn Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Marc-Andrea Huesler
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Mackenzie McDonald
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Mark Ceban
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 22
Sebastian Ofner
Parma Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jun 18
Stefano Travaglia
Parma Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 17
Miguel Damas
Parma Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–47 matches
| Metric | Ymer | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 47% | 55% |
| Sets won | 47% | 54% |
| Games won | 48% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Ymer | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 2 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Ymer | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 3 | 2 |
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