Elias Ymer vs Mattia BellucciPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Elias Ymer and Mattia Bellucci have met 2 times since 2023; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at Alicante Challenger in 2023 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Ymer has taken 2 sets to Bellucci's 3. Their most recent meeting: Mattia Bellucci won at Cary (2024).
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
- Level
- ATP Masters 1000
- Round
- 1st Round Qualifying
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 5 · 4:30 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 1.12 or shorter, Mattia Bellucci has won 10 of 11 (91%). The price implied 88%, so Mattia Bellucci has beaten it by 3 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Elias Ymer and Mattia Bellucci meet next at the Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai on October 5 on hard.
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ymer | Bellucci | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elias Ymer | Mattia Bellucci | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 55% | 16/29 | 73% | 24/33 |
| Wins a set when losing | 36% | 9/25 | 30% | 8/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 41% | 22/54 | 28% | 17/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 43% | 9/21 | 58% | 14/24 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 53% | 16/30 | 59% | 19/32 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 61% | 17/28 | 48% | 11/23 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 25/28 | 85% | 29/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 57% | 16/28 | 71% | 24/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ymer 0, Bellucci 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ymer
💥 Big Hitter
Bellucci
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Elias Ymer and Mattia Bellucci are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 3,990 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Aug 10, 2024
Cary
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5, 2023
Alicante Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Ymer | Bellucci | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Elias Ymer | Mattia Bellucci | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 100% | 14/14 |
| 3 or more | 92% | 12/13 | 100% | 14/14 |
| 5 or more | 62% | 8/13 | 93% | 13/14 |
| 10 or more | 15% | 2/13 | 29% | 4/14 |
| 15 or more | 8% | 1/13 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/14 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ymer | Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–8 | 8–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.14 | 2.22 |
| ROI % | -52.1% | -10.1% |
| Units P/L | -6.25u | -1.41u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ymer | Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 5 | 3 |
| Matches | 7 | 7 |
| Distance | 2,550 mi · 4,104 km | 927 mi · 1,492 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 3 shared opponents, both Ymer and Bellucci posted a 33% win rate.
| Opponent | Ymer | Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| Ugo Humbert | L 46 36 | L 67 76 46 |
| Alex Bolt | W 76 76 | W 67 75 63 |
| Brandon Nakashima | L 36 46 | L 36 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Federico Cina
Jingshan Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Terence Atmane
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 30
Alexis Galarneau
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Marat Sharipov
Guangzhou Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Luca Castelnuovo
Guangzhou Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 16
Semen Pankin
Guangzhou Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 14
Pavel Kotov
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Yu Hsiou Hsu
Zhangjiagang Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 1
Lloyd Harris
Jingshan Challenger · Final
Oct 4
Yanki Erel
Jingshan Challenger · Semifinals
Oct 3
Adam Walton
Jingshan Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Alexandre Muller
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 30
Keisuke Saitoh
Jingshan Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Filip Peliwo
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Kamil Majchrzak
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round
Sep 24
Taylor Fritz
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 55–64 matches
| Metric | Ymer | Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 53% | 53% |
| Sets won | 51% | 52% |
| Games won | 50% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Ymer | Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Ymer | Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |