Daniel Merida vs Toby SamuelPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Daniel Merida and Toby Samuel have met 2 times since 2026; Daniel Merida leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Tenerife 1 Challenger in 2026 on hard. On hard courts Merida leads 2–0. Merida has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Merida has taken 4 sets to Samuel's 0. Their most recent meeting: Daniel Merida won at Tenerife 2 Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Merida | Samuel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daniel Merida | Toby Samuel | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 63% | 25/40 | 84% | 64/76 |
| Wins a set when losing | 44% | 11/25 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 40% | 26/65 | 21% | 19/91 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 18/38 | 73% | 53/73 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 62% | 13/21 | 75% | 6/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 74% | 17/23 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 34/37 | 94% | 67/71 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 68% | 25/37 | 90% | 64/71 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Merida 2, Samuel 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Merida
🪃 Counterpuncher
Samuel
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
Both Daniel Merida and Toby Samuel are 🪃 Counterpuncher types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 4,946 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Feb 11, 2026
Tenerife 2 Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Feb 3, 2026
Tenerife 1 Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Merida | Samuel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daniel Merida | Toby Samuel | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 6/6 | 100% | 18/18 |
| 3 or more | 50% | 3/6 | 94% | 17/18 |
| 5 or more | 17% | 1/6 | 67% | 12/18 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/18 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/18 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/18 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Merida | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–3 | 13–5 |
| Avg odds | 4.14 | 1.81 |
| ROI % | -13.8% | +18.1% |
| Units P/L | -0.83u | +3.25u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Merida | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| Distance | 1,279 mi · 2,059 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Samuel has a higher win rate against shared opponents (88% vs Merida's 75%).
| Opponent | Merida | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| Billy Harris | W 63 75 | W 46 61 64 |
| Francesco Maestrelli | W 75 64 | W 67 63 61 |
| Martin Damm | L 36 26 | W 76 62 |
| Dane Sweeny | W 63 46 63 | L 75 26 36 |
| Liam Broady | W 64 62 | W 63 63 |
| Joel Schwaerzler | W 62 62 | W 76 76 |
| Sumit Nagal | L 36 16 | W 61 76 |
| Tiago Pereira | W 62 63 | W 75 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Andrey Rublev
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Marton Fucsovics
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Marin Cilic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Learner Tien
National Bank Open - Montreal · Quarterfinals
Aug 11
Ugo Humbert
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Daniil Medvedev
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Wimbledon · Round of 128
Jun 30
Martin Damm
HSBC Championships · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 13
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Tomas Machac
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Cristian Garin
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 27
Billy Harris
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Francesco Maestrelli
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 24
Jay Dylan Hara Friend
Vancouver Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Jay Dylan Hara Friend
Vancouver Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Jack Pinnington Jones
Vancouver Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 70–95 matches
| Metric | Merida | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 60% | 81% |
| Sets won | 57% | 76% |
| Games won | 52% | 61% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Merida | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Merida | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
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