Daniel Merida vs Gianluca CadenassoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Daniel Merida and Gianluca Cadenasso have met 2 times since 2025; Daniel Merida leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Maia Challenger in 2025 on clay. On clay courts Merida leads 2–0. Merida has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Merida has taken 2 sets to Cadenasso's 0. Their most recent meeting: Daniel Merida won at Perugia Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Merida | Cadenasso | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daniel Merida | Gianluca Cadenasso | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 60% | 21/35 | 62% | 21/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 55% | 11/20 | 39% | 7/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 45% | 25/55 | 38% | 20/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 44% | 14/32 | 44% | 14/32 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 71% | 12/17 | 68% | 13/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 65% | 11/17 | 45% | 5/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 90% | 28/31 | 84% | 27/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 68% | 21/31 | 66% | 21/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Merida 1, Cadenasso 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Merida
🪃 Counterpuncher
Cadenasso
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matchup analysis
The 🪃 Counterpuncher archetype wins about 53% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 2,464 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Daniel Merida.
Counterpuncher players often use elite bp conversion and strong return game to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jun 1, 2026
Perugia Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Nov 26, 2025
Maia Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Merida | Cadenasso | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daniel Merida | Gianluca Cadenasso | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 4/4 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 4/4 | 43% | 3/7 |
| 5 or more | 75% | 3/4 | 43% | 3/7 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/4 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/4 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/4 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Merida | Cadenasso |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–2 | 3–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.98 | 1.64 |
| ROI % | +10.6% | -42.4% |
| Units P/L | +0.53u | -2.97u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Merida | Cadenasso |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 3 |
| Matches | 1 | 5 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 553 mi · 890 km |
| Route | CHN | ITA |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Cadenasso has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Merida's 67%).
| Opponent | Merida | Cadenasso |
|---|---|---|
| Liam Broady | W 64 62 | W 75 64 |
| Lorenzo Giustino | W | W 61 76 |
| Gabriele Piraino | L 63 57 67 | W 60 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Botic van de Zandschulp
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Alejandro Tabilo
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, CHI-ESP · Rubber 1
Sep 19
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Andrey Rublev
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Marton Fucsovics
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Marin Cilic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Learner Tien
National Bank Open - Montreal · Quarterfinals
Aug 11
Ugo Humbert
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Massimo Giunta
Palermo Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 7
Filippo Moroni
Palermo Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Vitaliy Sachko
Bari Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Lorenzo Angelini
Bari Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 30
Benito Sanchez Martinez
Bari Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Matthew William Donald
Genoa 2 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 22
Francesco Forti
Biella Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 15
Federico Cina
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 22
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 52–61 matches
| Metric | Merida | Cadenasso |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 65% |
| Sets won | 58% | 60% |
| Games won | 52% | 55% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Merida | Cadenasso |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Merida | Cadenasso |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
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