Botic van de Zandschulp vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇳🇱Botic van de Zandschulp
#41 · 31 yrs · R
3 meetings · sets 4–3
🇪🇸Pablo Carreno Busta
#65 · 35 yrs · R
Botic van de Zandschulp and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 3 times since 2022; Botic van de Zandschulp leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid in 2022 on clay. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Zandschulp has taken 4 sets to Busta's 3. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | van de Zandschulp | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Botic van de Zandschulp | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 21/29 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 44% | 11/25 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 35% | 19/54 | 46% | 24/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 52% | 13/25 | 48% | 14/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 71% | 17/24 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 14/24 | 67% | 10/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 79% | 23/29 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 72% | 21/29 | 67% | 18/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (van de Zandschulp 1, Carreno Busta 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Zandschulp
💥 Big Hitter
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 1,017 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Feb 21, 2026
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 2, 2024
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 1st Round
May 3, 2022
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Zandschulp | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Botic van de Zandschulp | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 91% | 20/22 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 3 or more | 77% | 17/22 | 54% | 7/13 |
| 5 or more | 55% | 12/22 | 23% | 3/13 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 6/22 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 14% | 3/22 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/22 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Zandschulp | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–8 | 6–7 |
| Avg odds | 2.22 | 2.41 |
| ROI % | +24.8% | -16.8% |
| Units P/L | +5.70u | -2.18u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Zandschulp | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| Distance | 1,611 mi · 2,592 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Zandschulp has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Busta's 30%).
| Opponent | Zandschulp | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Mariano Navone | L 75 67 57 | W 46 75 63 |
| Daniil Medvedev | W 63 76 | L 46 26 |
| Valentin Royer | W 46 62 64 | L 61 57 26 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 62 62 | L 16 67 64 26 |
| Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | W 62 60 | L |
| Jakub Mensik | L 46 57 | L 57 64 62 67 36 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | W 64 63 | W 76 75 36 64 |
| Denis Shapovalov | W 75 63 | W 63 76 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | L 26 76 46 | L 46 46 |
| Quentin Halys | L | L 64 57 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alex Michelsen
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Francisco Cerundolo
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jie Cui
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Valentin Royer
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Johan Alexander Rodriguez
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, NED-COL 4-0 · Rubber 1
Sep 18
Alexander Zverev
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 10
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–65 matches
| Metric | Zandschulp | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 55% | 62% |
| Sets won | 55% | 58% |
| Games won | 51% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Zandschulp | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Zandschulp | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.