Blake Ellis vs Hiroki MoriyaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Phan Thiet 4 Challenger
- Level
- ATP Challenger Tour
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- September 14 · 11:00 PM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 1.98 or longer, Blake Ellis has won 15 of 40 (38%). That is level with the 39% the price implied.
At 1.71 or shorter, Hiroki Moriya has won 52 of 80 (65%). The price implied 60%, so Hiroki Moriya has beaten it by 5 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Blake Ellis and Hiroki Moriya meet in the 1st Round of the Phan Thiet 4 Challenger on September 14 on hard court. Ellis, ranked 462, leads their head-to-head 1-0 against Moriya, who sits at 501. Both have played four matches in the past 14 days, though Moriya has competed five times in that span and comes off the court more recently.
Moriya has won 60% of his last five matches; Ellis has won 40% over the same stretch. Both stand at 50% on hard courts over a longer sample. Ellis dropped his most recent match, while Moriya also lost his last outing despite stronger recent numbers.
Ellis builds his game around his serve and needs to land first serves consistently to control points and shorten rallies. Moriya plays as a counter-hitter who absorbs pace and looks to dictate from the baseline. The match will turn on whether Ellis can close out points quickly off his delivery or Moriya can steady his return and extend exchanges into his strength.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ellis | Moriya | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Blake Ellis | Hiroki Moriya | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 48% | 10/21 | 53% | 16/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 8/20 | 23% | 7/30 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 19/41 | 35% | 21/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 45% | 9/20 | 30% | 8/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 12/20 | 48% | 12/25 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 64% | 18/28 | 33% | 9/27 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 76% | 16/21 | 92% | 22/24 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 48% | 10/21 | 67% | 16/24 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ellis
🤖 Servebot
Moriya
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 56% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,258 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Blake Ellis.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Ellis and Moriya have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Ellis | Moriya | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Blake Ellis | Hiroki Moriya | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 10/10 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 3 or more | 90% | 9/10 | 58% | 7/12 |
| 5 or more | 80% | 8/10 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 10 or more | 50% | 5/10 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 10% | 1/10 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ellis | Moriya |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–6 | 8–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.98 | 1.90 |
| ROI % | -34.3% | -20.3% |
| Units P/L | -3.77u | -3.24u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ellis | Moriya |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 4 | 8 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | INA → VIE | TPE → CHN → VIE |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Ellis has a higher win rate against shared opponents (83% vs Moriya's 67%).
| Opponent | Ellis | Moriya |
|---|---|---|
| Maximus Jones | W 64 16 62 | W 63 76 |
| Philip Sekulic | W 75 67 75 | W 64 76 |
| Andre Ilagan | W 76 76 | L 26 67 |
| Li Tu | L 36 36 | W 16 64 76 |
| Moerani Bouzige | W 61 64 | W 64 64 |
| James McCabe | W 67 64 63 | L 46 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Max Purcell
Phan Thiet 3 Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 9
Benjamin O'Connell
Phan Thiet 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Hayden Jones
M15 Bali · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Reece Falck
M15 Bali · 1st Round
Sep 1
Duje Markovina
M15 Brisbane · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Joshua Charlton
M15 Brisbane · 1st Round
Jul 21
Benjamin O'Connell
M25 Brisbane · 2nd Round
Jul 16
Hayden Jones
M25 Brisbane · 1st Round
Jul 14
Yuta Shimizu
Phan Thiet 3 Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Maximus Jones
Phan Thiet 3 Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 9
Dominik Palan
Phan Thiet 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Kasidit Samrej
Zhangjiagang Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 1
S D Prajwal Dev
Zhangjiagang Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 31
Grigoriy Lomakin
Zhangjiagang Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 30
Tung-Lin Wu
M25 Taipei · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Kosuke Ogura
M25 Taipei · 1st Round
Aug 20
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 41–60 matches
| Metric | Ellis | Moriya |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 51% | 50% |
| Sets won | 50% | 48% |
| Games won | 48% | 50% |