Ben Shelton vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Ben Shelton and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 2 times since 2025; Ben Shelton leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Australian Open - Melbourne in 2025 on hard. On hard courts Shelton leads 2–0. Shelton has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Shelton has taken 6 sets to Busta's 1. Their most recent meeting: Ben Shelton won at U.S. Open - New York (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Shelton | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Ben Shelton | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 48% | 15/31 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 56% | 9/16 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 53% | 25/47 | 45% | 27/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 35% | 13/37 | 47% | 18/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 70% | 7/10 | 57% | 12/21 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 21/36 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 79% | 22/28 | 89% | 31/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 54% | 15/28 | 66% | 23/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Shelton
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 767 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Aug 27, 2025
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 16, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Shelton | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Ben Shelton | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 83% | 15/18 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 33% | 6/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 22% | 4/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 6% | 1/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Shelton | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–4 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.47 | 2.29 |
| ROI % | +14.8% | +0.8% |
| Units P/L | +2.67u | +0.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Shelton | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 9 | 3 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Shelton and Busta posted a 70% win rate.
| Opponent | Shelton | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Andrey Rublev | W 76 63 | L 67 16 |
| Jakub Mensik | W 63 61 | L 57 64 62 67 36 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | L 64 57 46 | L 26 16 |
| Martin Damm | W 64 46 64 | W 63 63 |
| Denis Shapovalov | W 46 64 76 | W 63 76 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 67 76 76 | W 63 76 63 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | L 76 36 46 | W 76 75 36 64 |
| Sebastian Baez | L 57 36 | W 57 75 75 |
| Francisco Comesana | W 75 64 | W 64 63 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | W 57 63 64 | W 46 63 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Brandon Nakashima
National Bank Open - Montreal · Final
Aug 14
Learner Tien
National Bank Open - Montreal · Semifinals
Aug 13
Jakub Mensik
National Bank Open - Montreal · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Joao Fonseca
National Bank Open - Montreal · 4th Round
Aug 10
Zizou Bergs
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Jenson Brooksby
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Alejandro Tabilo
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 55–65 matches
| Metric | Shelton | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 65% | 65% |
| Sets won | 60% | 60% |
| Games won | 52% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Shelton | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Shelton | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
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