Alexander Zverev vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alexander Zverev and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 4 times since 2018; Alexander Zverev leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Miami in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Zverev leads 3–0. Zverev has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Zverev has taken 9 sets to Busta's 2. Their most recent meeting: Alexander Zverev won at Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Zverev | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alexander Zverev | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 30/44 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 8/17 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 22/61 | 46% | 24/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 56% | 29/52 | 48% | 14/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 25% | 2/8 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 23/33 | 67% | 10/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 39/46 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 30/46 | 67% | 18/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Zverev 3, Carreno Busta 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Zverev
💥 Big Hitter
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 1,017 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Aug 16, 2024
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 3rd Round
Apr 14, 2022
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 3rd Round
Sep 11, 2020
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Semifinals
Mar 30, 2018
ATP Masters 1000 Miami
H Hard · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Zverev | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alexander Zverev | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 54% | 7/13 |
| 5 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 23% | 3/13 |
| 10 or more | 61% | 11/18 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 33% | 6/18 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 6% | 1/18 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Zverev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 16–4 | 6–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.19 | 2.41 |
| ROI % | -6.8% | -16.8% |
| Units P/L | -1.35u | -2.18u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Zverev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 1 |
| Events | 4 | 2 |
| Matches | 8 | 6 |
| Distance | 9,183 mi · 14,779 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | USA → GBR → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Zverev has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Busta's 50%).
| Opponent | Zverev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | L 46 67 | L 36 64 16 |
| Quentin Halys | W 64 67 63 | L 64 57 36 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 62 76 62 | W 46 76 64 |
| Mariano Navone | W 61 36 63 | W 46 75 63 |
| Daniil Medvedev | W 26 63 76 | L 46 26 |
| Matej Dodig | W 64 76 | W 64 62 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 62 75 61 | W 63 62 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 64 75 36 76 | L 16 67 64 26 |
| Tomas Machac | W 64 62 62 | W 63 62 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | L 76 26 46 | L 46 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Quentin Halys
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Yibing Wu
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Juncheng Shang
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Cameron Norrie
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Learner Tien
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 27
Alex de Minaur
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Dino Prizmic
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, GER-CRO · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–88 matches
| Metric | Zverev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 78% | 62% |
| Sets won | 72% | 58% |
| Games won | 56% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Zverev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 3 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Zverev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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