Alexander Zverev vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alexander Zverev and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 4 times since 2018; Alexander Zverev leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Miami in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Zverev leads 3–0. Zverev has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Zverev has taken 9 sets to Busta's 2. Their most recent meeting: Alexander Zverev won at Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Zverev | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alexander Zverev | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 27/41 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 37% | 7/19 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 35% | 21/60 | 45% | 27/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 52% | 25/48 | 47% | 18/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 27% | 3/11 | 57% | 12/21 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 19/28 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 86% | 36/42 | 89% | 31/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 64% | 27/42 | 66% | 23/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Zverev 3, Carreno Busta 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Zverev
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 767 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Aug 16, 2024
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 3rd Round
Apr 14, 2022
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 3rd Round
Sep 11, 2020
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Semifinals
Mar 30, 2018
ATP Masters 1000 Miami
H Hard · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Zverev | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alexander Zverev | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 67% | 12/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 28% | 5/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 6% | 1/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Zverev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–4 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.43 | 2.29 |
| ROI % | -5.0% | +0.8% |
| Units P/L | -0.90u | +0.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Zverev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Zverev has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Busta's 30%).
| Opponent | Zverev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Tomas Machac | W 64 62 62 | W 63 62 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | L 76 26 46 | L 46 46 |
| Valentin Royer | W 61 63 76 | L 61 57 26 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | W 67 61 75 | L 63 57 57 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 64 75 36 76 | W 63 76 63 |
| Rafael Jodar | W 76 61 63 | L 63 36 61 36 46 |
| Vit Kopriva | W 63 46 62 | L 36 61 46 |
| Jakub Mensik | W 75 62 36 63 | L 57 64 62 67 36 |
| Quentin Halys | W 64 63 57 62 | L 64 57 36 |
| Martin Damm | W 62 64 | W 63 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Tommy Paul
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Terence Atmane
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Cameron Norrie
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Jannik Sinner
Wimbledon - London · Final
Jul 12
Arthur Fery
Wimbledon - London · Semifinals
Jul 10
Taylor Fritz
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Jiri Lehecka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 7
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 65–81 matches
| Metric | Zverev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 73% | 65% |
| Sets won | 67% | 60% |
| Games won | 55% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Zverev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Zverev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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