Head-to-Head

Aleksandr Shevchenko vs Jacob FearnleyPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

🇰🇿Aleksandr Shevchenko

#107 · 25 yrs · R

0–0

First meeting

🇬🇧Jacob Fearnley

#90 · 25 yrs · R

Upcoming match

Tournament: BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm
Level: ATP 250
Round: 3rd Round Qualifying
Surface: Hard
Date & time: November 8 · 8:20 AM ET

Book odds

Jacob Fearnley1.33

Aleksandr Shevchenko3.17

Set spread

Fearnley -1.51.91

Shevchenko +1.51.79

Game spread

Fearnley -3.51.74

Shevchenko +3.51.96

FearnleyHard-court specialist (68%)ShevchenkoHard-court specialist (52%)

Record at prices like this

Jacob Fearnley1.33implies 75%won 76%+1 pts

At 1.33 or shorter, Jacob Fearnley has won 22 of 29 (76%). That is level with the 75% the price implied.

Aleksandr Shevchenko3.17implies 23%won 24%+1 pts

At 3.17 or longer, Aleksandr Shevchenko has won 12 of 49 (24%). That is level with the 23% the price implied.

Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.

Jacob Fearnley meets Aleksandr Shevchenko in the 3rd Round Qualifying of the BNP Paribas Nordic Open on November 8. Fearnley, ranked 90th, has won three matches in the last two weeks on hard courts. Shevchenko, ranked 107th, has played two qualifying rounds in the same stretch with a 40% win rate on the surface.

The two have never faced each other. Fearnley has won 7 of his last 10 matches overall, while Shevchenko has gone 4-6 in the same span. On hard courts specifically, Fearnley's record stands at 13-7; Shevchenko's recent hard court form is 8-12.

Fearnley operates as a counterpuncher who thrives on reaction and rhythm disruption. Shevchenko relies on a serve-driven game and must dictate points early to avoid extended baseline exchanges. The match asks whether Shevchenko can impose his serve and finish rallies quickly, or whether Fearnley's returning game and court sense can neutralize that pressure and create openings from the back of the court.

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Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

Indicator	Shevchenko	Fearnley
Indicator	Aleksandr Shevchenko		Jacob Fearnley
Wins in straight sets	57%	16/28	58%	21/36
Wins a set when losing	28%	8/29	50%	10/20
Goes to a deciding set	35%	20/57	45%	25/56
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite	38%	10/26	43%	20/46
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog	48%	14/29	60%	6/10
Tiebreak sets won	48%	16/33	50%	14/28
Wins after taking set 1	80%	24/30	96%	27/28
Wins 2-0 after taking set 1	53%	16/30	75%	21/28

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Shevchenko

🤖 Servebot

High ace rateDominant serviceWeaker returnBig first serve

Fearnley

🪃 Counterpuncher

Elite BP conversionStrong return gameDefensive consistencyRally tolerance

Matchup analysis

The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 56% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,416 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Aleksandr Shevchenko.

Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.

Previous meetings

First career meeting

Shevchenko and Fearnley have never faced each other on tour.

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

Outcome	Shevchenko	Fearnley
Outcome	Aleksandr Shevchenko		Jacob Fearnley
1 or more	100%	11/11	95%	20/21
3 or more	64%	7/11	48%	10/21
5 or more	64%	7/11	33%	7/21
10 or more	18%	2/11	5%	1/21
15 or more	0%	0/11	0%	0/21
20 or more	0%	0/11	0%	0/21

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

Metric	Shevchenko	Fearnley
W-L	5–8	14–7
Avg odds	2.21	1.51
ROI %	-27.5%	-3.0%
Units P/L	-3.58u	-0.62u

Travel

Last 30 days

Metric	Shevchenko	Fearnley
Countries	2	3
Events	2	3
Matches	3	6
Distance	2,668 mi · 4,294 km	1,340 mi · 2,156 km
Route	KAZ → SWE	BEL → AUT → SWE

Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Shevchenko has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Fearnley's 40%).

Opponent	Shevchenko	Fearnley
Luka Pavlovic	L 36 64 46	W 64 67 64
Clement Chidekh	W 64 76	L 67 26
Hugo Gaston	W 61 36 61	W 63 60
Damir Dzumhur	W 46 64 75	L 67 36
Maxim Mrva	W 76 60	W 60 76
Taro Daniel	L 63 06 67	L 46 16
Christopher O'Connell	L 46 16	W 76 76
Kyrian Jacquet	L 64 46 36	L 67 61 36
Alex Michelsen	L 26 46 26	L 67 36
Quentin Halys	W 76 63	L 36 46

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Shevchenko

WLLWLWWL

Viktor Durasovic

BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm · 1st Round Qualifying

Nov 7

Luka Pavlovic

Bratislava 2 Challenger · 1st Round

Nov 2

Stefanos Sakellaridis

Almaty Open - Almaty · 3rd Round Qualifying

6⁴7

Oct 18

Daniil Glinka

Almaty Open - Almaty · 1st Round Qualifying

6³7

Oct 17

Mattia Bellucci

Jinan Challenger · Quarterfinals

Oct 16

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Jinan Challenger · 2nd Round

Oct 15

Miomir Kecmanovic

Jinan Challenger · 1st Round

Oct 13

Yoshihito Nishioka

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying

Oct 5

Fearnley

WLWWLWLW

Arthur Nagel

BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm · 1st Round Qualifying

Nov 7

Arthur Fery

Erste Bank Open - Vienna · 1st Round

Oct 26

Lorenzo Sonego

Erste Bank Open - Vienna · 3rd Round Qualifying

6³7

Oct 25

Pablo Carreno Busta

Erste Bank Open - Vienna · 1st Round Qualifying

Oct 24

Clement Chidekh

European Open - Brussels · 2nd Round

6⁴7

Oct 21

Hugo Gaston

European Open - Brussels · 1st Round

Oct 20

Damir Dzumhur

Olbia Challenger · Final

6⁴7