ATP 500 · Round of 16 · Rio de Janeiro
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Baez
🧱 The Wall
Varillas
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🪃 Counterpuncher archetype wins about 57% vs 🧱 The Wall across 2,634 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Juan Pablo Varillas here.
Counterpuncher players often use elite bp conversion and strong return game to pressure the the wall's elite returner. On Clay, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Baez | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–7 | 2–1 |
| Avg odds | 2.30 | 1.19 |
| ROI % | -30.0% | -17.3% |
| Units P/L | -4.50u | -0.52u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 10 career meetings
8
Baez
2
Varillas
Feb 29, 2024
Santiago
C Clay · Round of 16
May 10, 2023
ATP Masters 1000 Rome
C Clay · Round of 128
Feb 23, 2023
Rio de Janeiro
C Clay · Round of 16
Feb 22, 2022
Santiago
C Clay · Round of 32
Oct 23, 2021
Buenos Aires
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Oct 10, 2021
Santiago 2
C Clay · Finals
Jul 1, 2021
Hamburg
C Clay · 2nd Round Qualifying
May 16, 2021
Zagreb
C Clay · Finals
Mar 18, 2021
Santiago
C Clay · Semifinals
Nov 6, 2019
Montevideo
C Clay · Round of 32
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Baez has a higher win rate against shared opponents (33% vs Varillas's 0%).
| Opponent | Baez | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | L 62 57 26 02 | L 26 36 |
| Alvaro Guillen Meza | L 67 46 | L 63 26 46 |
| Emilio Nava | W 46 75 63 | L 36 26 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Baez | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 68.3% | 53.8% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 64.3% | 67.9% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 52.1% | 43.2% |
| Aces / Match | 2.1 | 4 |
| Double Faults / Match | 1.5 | 4 |
| Break Points Saved % | 60.8% | 54.8% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 36.7% | 26% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 56.1% | 51.3% |
| BP Converted % | 54.3% | 34.8% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 15.6 | 17.8 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 23.5 | 30.7 |
| Net Pts Won % | 58.5% | 67.6% |
| Total Pts Won % | 51.9% | 47.3% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 43% | 50% |
Last five matches per player
Ryan Dickerson
Santos Brasil Tennis Cup · Round of 32
May 6
Lautaro Midon
Copa Internacional de Tenis · Quarterfinals
Apr 10
Gonzalo Villanueva
Copa Internacional de Tenis · Round of 16
Apr 9
Victor Braga
Copa Internacional de Tenis · Round of 32
Apr 8
Facundo Diaz Acosta
São Léo Open de Tênis · Round of 16
Apr 2
Matchup overview
Sebastian Baez and Juan Pablo Varillas face off in the Round of 16 at Rio de Janeiro on Clay.
Sebastian Baez leads 8-2 over 10 previous meetings.
Sebastian Baez is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Alex Molcan (Jun 7).
Juan Pablo Varillas is 2-3 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Ryan Dickerson (May 6).
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