WTA 1000 · Round of 32 · Cincinnati
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Badosa
💥 Big Hitter
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Paula Badosa and Aryna Sabalenka are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit. Across 7,760 matches in our dataset, the historical split is about even.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Badosa | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–5 | 8–1 |
| Avg odds | 1.59 | 1.82 |
| ROI % | -54.7% | +1.2% |
| Units P/L | -3.83u | +0.11u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 7 career meetings
2
Badosa
5
Sabalenka
Jan 13, 2025
Australian Open
H Hard · Semifinals
May 27, 2024
Roland Garros
C Clay · Round of 32
Mar 18, 2024
Miami
H Hard · Round of 64
Apr 17, 2023
Stuttgart
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Apr 18, 2022
Stuttgart
C Clay · Semifinals
Nov 10, 2021
Guadalajara Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Aug 16, 2021
Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 32
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Badosa's 0%).
| Opponent | Badosa | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Iva Jovic | L 26 16 | W 63 60 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 36 26 | W 64 63 |
| Marie Bouzkova | L 63 36 46 | W 76 64 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Badosa | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 57.4% | 65.4% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 70.5% | 71.8% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 33.9% | 54.4% |
| Aces / Match | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| Double Faults / Match | 7.1 | 2.3 |
| Break Points Saved % | 40.3% | 54.5% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 37.5% | 34.2% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 54% | 57.5% |
| BP Converted % | 39.6% | 45.2% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Net Pts Won % | 0% | 0% |
| Total Pts Won % | 48.8% | 54.5% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 50% | 100% |
Last five matches per player
Matchup overview
Paula Badosa and Aryna Sabalenka face off in the Round of 32 at Cincinnati on Hard.
Paula Badosa leads 2-5 over 7 previous meetings.
Paula Badosa is 1-4 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Daria Snigur (Jun 8).
Aryna Sabalenka is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Diana Shnaider (Jun 3).
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