ATP Challenger Tour · Round of 32 · Madrid
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Busta
💥 Big Hitter
Paul
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 54% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 4,242 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Pablo Carreno Busta here.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion. On Clay, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Busta | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–2 | 2–3 |
| Avg odds | 2.13 | 2.79 |
| ROI % | +21.0% | -13.6% |
| Units P/L | +1.26u | -0.68u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 1 career meeting
1
Busta
0
Paul
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 1 shared opponent, both Busta and Paul posted a 0% win rate.
| Opponent | Busta | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Dusan Lajovic | L 46 63 36 | L 16 46 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Busta | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 71.1% | 57.5% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 70.8% | 60.7% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 51.9% | 49.1% |
| Aces / Match | 3.5 | 1.2 |
| Double Faults / Match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Break Points Saved % | 30.6% | 55.6% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 36.2% | 27.6% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 52.7% | 50.7% |
| BP Converted % | 42.2% | 26% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 20.3 | 7 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 17 | 28 |
| Net Pts Won % | 86.7% | 58.3% |
| Total Pts Won % | 52.9% | 45.2% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 70% | 40% |
Last five matches per player
Enrico Dalla Valle
Emilia-Romagna Tennis Cup · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 15
Michele Mecarelli
Emilia-Romagna Tennis Cup · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 14
Stefano Napolitano
Copa Faulconbridge · 1st Round Qualifying
May 11
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Copa Faulconbridge · 2nd Round Qualifying
May 1
Dusan Lajovic
Grand Prix Hassan II · 1st Round Qualifying
Mar 30
Matchup overview
Pablo Carreno Busta and Jakub Paul face off in the Round of 32 at Madrid on Clay.
Pablo Carreno Busta leads 1-0 over 1 previous meeting.
Pablo Carreno Busta is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Rafael Jodar (May 31).
Jakub Paul is 2-3 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Enrico Dalla Valle (Jun 15).
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