ATP 500 · Finals · Hamburg
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Musetti
🏹 Frontrunner
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 59% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 66 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Carlos Alcaraz here.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts. On Clay, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Musetti | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–5 | 10–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.63 | 1.14 |
| ROI % | -25.6% | -18.9% |
| Units P/L | -2.81u | -2.46u |
Prior meetings and scores · 9 career meetings
1
Musetti
8
Alcaraz
Nov 13, 2025
Nitto ATP Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Jun 5, 2025
Roland Garros
C Clay · Semifinals
May 16, 2025
ATP Masters 1000 Rome
C Clay · Semifinals
Apr 13, 2025
ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo
C Clay · Finals
Mar 26, 2024
ATP Masters 1000 Miami
H Hard · Round of 16
Oct 1, 2023
Beijing
H Hard · Round of 16
Jun 4, 2023
Roland Garros
C Clay · Round of 16
Jul 24, 2022
Hamburg
C Clay · Finals
Aug 25, 2020
Trieste
C Clay · Semifinals
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Musetti's 30%).
| Opponent | Musetti | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Casper Ruud | L 36 16 | W 61 76 |
| Jiri Lehecka | L 36 36 | W 64 62 64 |
| Arthur Fils | L 36 46 | W 62 61 |
| Corentin Moutet | W 63 64 | W 62 64 61 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 16 46 26 | L 67 36 |
| Valentin Vacherot | L 67 57 | W 64 64 |
| Alexander Bublik | L 67 36 | W 63 60 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 67 62 64 | W 61 46 63 |
| Sebastian Korda | W 60 57 75 | L 36 75 46 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 63 26 36 | W 63 64 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Musetti | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 64.6% | 66% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 71% | 73.6% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 50% | 56.9% |
| Aces / Match | 2.5 | 4.5 |
| Double Faults / Match | 1.9 | 2 |
| Break Points Saved % | 59.1% | 54.5% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 31.5% | 37.1% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 45.6% | 58.4% |
| BP Converted % | 29.8% | 53.8% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 18.9 | 24.5 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 23.9 | 25.6 |
| Net Pts Won % | 71.7% | 69.9% |
| Total Pts Won % | 49.7% | 56% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 60% | 83% |
Last five matches per player
Casper Ruud
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 16
May 12
Francisco Cerundolo
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 32
May 10
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 64
May 8
Jiri Lehecka
Mutua Madrid Open · Round of 16
Apr 28
Tallon Griekspoor
Mutua Madrid Open · Round of 32
Apr 26
Otto Virtanen
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Round of 32
Apr 14
Jannik Sinner
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Final
Apr 12
Valentin Vacherot
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Semifinals
Apr 11
Alexander Bublik
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Quarterfinals
Apr 10
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Round of 16
Apr 9
Matchup overview
Lorenzo Musetti and Carlos Alcaraz face off in the Finals at Hamburg on Clay.
Lorenzo Musetti leads 1-8 over 9 previous meetings.
Lorenzo Musetti is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Casper Ruud (May 12).
Carlos Alcaraz is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Otto Virtanen (Apr 14).
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