ATP Challenger Tour · Round of 16 · Lexus Ilkley Open
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Smith
🎯 Baseliner
Fearnley
🛡️ The Spoiler
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 58% vs 🛡️ The Spoiler across 728 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Keegan Smith here.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the the spoiler's strong court coverage. On Grass, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Smith | Fearnley |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–6 | 2–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.96 | 2.20 |
| ROI % | +9.9% | -45.8% |
| Units P/L | +1.59u | -2.75u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
First career meeting
Smith and Fearnley have never faced each other on tour.
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Fearnley has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Smith's 0%).
| Opponent | Smith | Fearnley |
|---|---|---|
| Shintaro Mochizuki | L 63 36 46 | W 63 61 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Smith | Fearnley |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 71.1% | 65.1% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 75.1% | 61.7% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 57.9% | 41.6% |
| Aces / Match | 6.4 | 5.3 |
| Double Faults / Match | 1.7 | 4.7 |
| Break Points Saved % | 66.9% | 64.5% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 29% | 25.4% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 45.1% | 64.7% |
| BP Converted % | 34.6% | 50.9% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 25.8 | 23.8 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 22.6 | 29.4 |
| Net Pts Won % | 56.8% | 60.4% |
| Total Pts Won % | 51.8% | 46.7% |
| Surface (Grass) | ||
| Grass Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Finn Bass
Lexus Ilkley Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 8
Rio Noguchi
Lexus Ilkley Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 8
Ben Jones
Lexus Birmingham Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 1
Manish Sureshkumar
S M KRISHNA MEMORIAL OPEN · Round of 32
May 19
Philip Sekulic
KARNATAKA OPEN · Final
May 16
Rinky Hijikata
Lexus Birmingham Open · Round of 32
Jun 3
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 26
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 128
May 7
Titouan Droguet
BNP Paribas Primrose Bordeaux · Round of 32
May 7
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · 2nd Round Qualifying
May 5
Match summary
Jacob Fearnley meets Keegan Smith in the Round of 16 at the Lexus Ilkley Open on June 11, a grass court event in Ilkley. Fearnley is ranked 145th; Smith sits at 252nd. Neither player has faced the other before.
Fearnley has won 1 of his last 5 matches and 3 of his last 10, arriving with a four-match losing streak and no matches in the past two weeks. Smith has not played competitively in 98 days but owns a 60% record across his last 10 matches before that layoff. The two have no common opponents on record.
Fearnley has posted a 61% record on grass in recent play, winning 11 of 17 matches on the surface, and tends to disrupt opponents rather than dominate points. Smith operates as a baseline competitor who prefers extended rallies. Fearnley will need to shake off rust and find timing early; Smith must navigate the movement and tempo demands that grass demands while regaining match sharpness after his lengthy absence.
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