ATP Challenger Tour · Round of 32 · Jiangxi Open
Final score
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Smith
💥 Big Hitter
Matsuoka
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🎾 All-Court is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 1,083 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and H2H matter most when Keegan Smith plays Hayato Matsuoka.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Smith | Matsuoka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–7 | 9–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.97 | 1.93 |
| ROI % | +15.8% | -19.6% |
| Units P/L | +2.84u | -3.34u |
Prior meetings and scores · 1 career meeting
1
Smith
0
Matsuoka
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 2 shared opponents, both Smith and Matsuoka posted a 50% win rate.
| Opponent | Smith | Matsuoka |
|---|---|---|
| Ognjen Milic | W 76 63 | W 64 57 64 |
| Li Tu | L 63 57 67 | L 36 67 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Smith | Matsuoka |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 71.8% | 61% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 73.8% | 69.6% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 57% | 54.4% |
| Aces / Match | 6.2 | 3.5 |
| Double Faults / Match | 1.8 | 3.2 |
| Break Points Saved % | 64.2% | 60.6% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 28% | 36.9% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 44.2% | 54.8% |
| BP Converted % | 36.4% | 54.5% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 25.6 | 15.5 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 24.8 | 35 |
| Net Pts Won % | 47.6% | 55.4% |
| Total Pts Won % | 50.8% | 53% |
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Match summary
Keegan Smith meets Hayato Matsuoka in the Round of 32 at the Jiangxi Open on April 28, an outdoor hard court event. Smith, ranked 302nd, arrives off two matches in the past two weeks but has won just one of his last five. Matsuoka, ranked 366th, comes in with momentum after winning his last two matches and playing six times in the past fortnight.
The two have never met. Smith has split a pair of meetings with Joshua Sheehy and lost to Li Tu on hard courts recently, while Matsuoka beat both those opponents in their respective matchups. On hard courts overall, Matsuoka has built a 12-8 record; Smith sits at 10-10 over the same sample.
Smith operates from the baseline and will need to construct points methodically. Hayato Matsuoka reads the court well as a counterpuncher, with a recent record that shows comfort reacting to pace rather than dictating it. Smith must impose control early and finish points before Matsuoka finds his rhythm in rallies.
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