ATP Masters 1000 · Final · BNP Paribas Open
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sinner
💥 Big Hitter
Medvedev
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 5,645 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and H2H matter most when Jannik Sinner plays Daniil Medvedev.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sinner | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 23–2 | 13–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.10 | 1.62 |
| ROI % | +1.1% | +4.6% |
| Units P/L | +0.28u | +0.88u |
Prior meetings and scores · 16 career meetings
9
Sinner
7
Medvedev
Mar 15, 2026
BNP Paribas Open
H Hard · Final
Nov 14, 2024
Nitto ATP Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Oct 10, 2024
ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Sep 4, 2024
US Open
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jul 10, 2024
Wimbledon
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Mar 29, 2024
ATP Masters 1000 Miami
H Hard · Semifinals
Jan 28, 2024
Australian Open
H Hard · Finals
Nov 18, 2023
Nitto ATP Finals
H Hard · Semifinals
Oct 29, 2023
Vienna
H Hard · Finals
Oct 4, 2023
Beijing
H Hard · Finals
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sinner | Medvedev | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more | 92% | 23/25 | 95% | 18/19 |
| 3 or more | 68% | 17/25 | 90% | 17/19 |
| 5 or more | 44% | 11/25 | 63% | 12/19 |
| 10 or more | 16% | 4/25 | 21% | 4/19 |
| 15 or more | 16% | 4/25 | 5% | 1/19 |
| 20 or more | 4% | 1/25 | 0% | 0/19 |
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sinner has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Medvedev's 50%).
| Opponent | Sinner | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | W 76 63 | W 63 76 |
| Alexander Zverev | W 61 64 | L 62 36 67 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | W 63 64 | W 64 62 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 63 60 | L 67 63 36 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 62 62 | W 63 62 |
| Alex Michelsen | W 75 76 | W 62 64 |
| Corentin Moutet | W 61 64 | L 67 46 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | W 75 61 | L 06 64 57 |
| Learner Tien | W 61 62 | L 46 06 36 |
| Dalibor Svrcina | W 61 61 | W 61 61 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Sinner | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 64.8% | 69.4% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 65.6% | 71.6% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 50.3% | 52.4% |
| Aces / Match | 6 | 6.7 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Break Points Saved % | 61.2% | 48.3% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 19.3% | 34% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 44.1% | 53.7% |
| BP Converted % | 20.5% | 37.6% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 13.8 | 19.8 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 23 | 24.4 |
| Net Pts Won % | 53.5% | 74.2% |
| Total Pts Won % | 44.8% | 53.4% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 90% | 72% |
Last five matches per player
Carlos Alcaraz
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Final
Apr 12
Alexander Zverev
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Semifinals
Apr 11
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Quarterfinals
Apr 10
Tomas Machac
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Round of 16
Apr 9
Ugo Humbert
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Round of 32
Apr 7
Matteo Berrettini
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Round of 32
Apr 8
Francisco Cerundolo
Miami Open presented by Itau · Round of 32
Mar 23
Rei Sakamoto
Miami Open presented by Itau · Round of 64
Mar 21
Jannik Sinner
BNP Paribas Open · Final
Mar 15
Carlos Alcaraz
BNP Paribas Open · Semifinals
Mar 14
Matchup overview
Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev face off in the Final at BNP Paribas Open on Hard.
Jannik Sinner leads 9-7 over 16 previous meetings.
Jannik Sinner is 5-0 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Carlos Alcaraz (Apr 12).
Daniil Medvedev is 2-3 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Matteo Berrettini (Apr 8).
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