ATP Challenger Tour · Round of 16 · Lisbon
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rocha
⚔️ The Gladiator
Choinski
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🪃 Counterpuncher archetype wins about 55% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 3,727 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Jan Choinski here.
Counterpuncher players often use elite bp conversion and strong return game to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity. On Clay, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rocha | Choinski |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–5 | 7–9 |
| Avg odds | 1.60 | 2.46 |
| ROI % | +9.1% | -9.2% |
| Units P/L | +1.63u | -1.47u |
Prior meetings and scores · 3 career meetings
2
Rocha
1
Choinski
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rocha | Choinski | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more | 75% | 15/20 | 94% | 15/16 |
| 3 or more | 35% | 7/20 | 63% | 10/16 |
| 5 or more | 15% | 3/20 | 50% | 8/16 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/20 | 13% | 2/16 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/20 | 0% | 0/16 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/20 | 0% | 0/16 |
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 8 shared opponents, both Rocha and Choinski posted a 50% win rate.
| Opponent | Rocha | Choinski |
|---|---|---|
| Roman Safiullin | L 46 46 | W 46 75 75 |
| Pablo Llamas Ruiz | W 60 75 | L 26 76 36 |
| Marco Trungelliti | L 67 26 | W 64 46 64 |
| Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | W 61 62 | L 46 67 |
| Jakub Mensik | W 26 16 64 63 63 | L 76 26 46 |
| Leandro Riedi | L 46 26 | L 36 46 |
| Frederico Ferreira Silva | W 62 63 | W 62 46 75 |
| Francesco Passaro | L 57 36 | W 76 63 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Rocha | Choinski |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 64.2% | 62.4% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 69% | 66.5% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 51.7% | 52.3% |
| Aces / Match | 2 | 5.3 |
| Double Faults / Match | 3.4 | 1.8 |
| Break Points Saved % | 57.2% | 48.9% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 33% | 29.6% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 56.3% | 46.4% |
| BP Converted % | 47.2% | 44.6% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 18.3 | 22.9 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 24.6 | 30.8 |
| Net Pts Won % | 60.2% | 64.3% |
| Total Pts Won % | 51.8% | 48.8% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 74% | 33% |
Last five matches per player
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Mutua Madrid Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Apr 21
Jan Choinski
Mutua Madrid Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Apr 20
Roman Safiullin
Oeiras Open 3 · Semifinals
Apr 18
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Oeiras Open 3 · Quarterfinals
Apr 17
Rei Sakamoto
Oeiras Open 3 · Round of 16
Apr 16
Henrique Rocha
Mutua Madrid Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Apr 20
Marc-Andrea Huesler
BMW Open by Bitpanda · 1st Round Qualifying
Apr 11
Alexandre Muller
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · 1st Round Qualifying
Apr 4
Stefanos Sakellaridis
Tiriac Open presented by UniCredit Bank · Round of 32
Mar 31
Tiago Pereira
Montemar ENE Construccion · Round of 32
Mar 24
Match summary
Henrique Rocha and Jan Choinski will meet in the first round of qualifying at the Mutua Madrid Open on April 20, 2026. Both players are ranked near 118 and 119 respectively, making this an evenly matched contest on the clay courts of Madrid.
The two have split their head to head meetings, with each holding one victory. Their rivalry has been competitive and tight, offering little indication of dominance from either player.
Rocha comes in with momentum, posting a 60% win rate over his last five matches and his last ten, with four matches played in the past two weeks. Choinski is struggling by comparison, winning only 20% of his last five matches and 40% of his last ten, with his most recent outing coming nine days ago.
Both players have identical records on clay this season at 14 wins and 6 losses. Rocha plays with an aggressive, relentless style that powers through opponents, while Choinski relies on defensive positioning and timing to counter his rivals' attack. Their recent results against shared opponents have been split, showing that either player can find success on any given day.
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