ATP Masters 1000 · 1st Round Qualifying · Mutua Madrid Open
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Moller
⚔️ The Gladiator
Gaston
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
⚔️ The Gladiator vs ⚙️ Grinder is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 2,710 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and H2H matter most when Elmer Moller plays Hugo Gaston.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Moller | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–6 | 8–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.62 | 1.68 |
| ROI % | -48.4% | -14.5% |
| Units P/L | -3.87u | -2.03u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 1 career meeting
1
Moller
0
Gaston
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Moller | Gaston | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more | 88% | 7/8 | 93% | 13/14 |
| 3 or more | 50% | 4/8 | 79% | 11/14 |
| 5 or more | 25% | 2/8 | 43% | 6/14 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 7% | 1/14 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/14 |
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 3 shared opponents, both Moller and Gaston posted a 67% win rate.
| Opponent | Moller | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Jarry | L 26 63 06 | L 67 46 |
| Francesco Maestrelli | W 26 62 63 | W 76 61 |
| Stan Wawrinka | W 62 76 | W 64 64 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Moller | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 63.5% | 55.7% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 59.8% | 67.6% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 45.7% | 45.3% |
| Aces / Match | 2.8 | 4.6 |
| Double Faults / Match | 5 | 2.4 |
| Break Points Saved % | 63.1% | 53.1% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 41.3% | 31.1% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 54.5% | 45.9% |
| BP Converted % | 46.3% | 41.9% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 19 | 22.3 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 33.3 | 34.9 |
| Net Pts Won % | 73.6% | 76.1% |
| Total Pts Won % | 50.4% | 47.8% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 25% | 50% |
Last five matches per player
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Mutua Madrid Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Apr 21
Hugo Gaston
Mutua Madrid Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Apr 20
Nicolas Jarry
Oeiras Open 3 · Round of 32
Apr 14
Mariano Navone
Tiriac Open presented by UniCredit Bank · Round of 16
Apr 1
Adrian Boitan
Tiriac Open presented by UniCredit Bank · Round of 32
Mar 31
Elmer Moller
Mutua Madrid Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Apr 20
Martin Landaluce
Atkinsons Monza Open · Quarterfinals
Apr 10
Timofey Skatov
Atkinsons Monza Open · Round of 16
Apr 9
Gianluca Cadenasso
Atkinsons Monza Open · Round of 32
Apr 7
Luca Van Assche
Grand Prix Hassan II · Round of 32
Mar 31
Match summary
Elmer Moller, ranked 169th, will face Hugo Gaston, ranked 115th, in the first round of qualifying at the Mutua Madrid Open on April 20, 2026. The match takes place on outdoor clay, a surface where both players have recent experience competing.
Moller and Gaston have never met before, so there is no head-to-head history between them. Both players have faced several common opponents in recent tournaments, including Francesco Maestrelli, Nicolai Budkov Kjaer, and Stan Wawrinka, providing some context for their relative abilities.
Gaston comes into this match with stronger recent form, posting a 70% win rate over his last ten matches and three matches in the past two weeks. Moller has struggled more recently, winning just two of his last five matches and losing his last two outings. Gaston carries just one loss from his most recent match, while Moller arrives with a two-match losing streak.
On clay specifically, Moller holds a 50% record while Gaston sits at 40%. Moller tends to play an aggressive style, while Gaston relies on consistency and grinding rallies. Their contrasting approaches should produce an interesting tactical battle on the red clay.
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