WTA 250 · Final · Lugano
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Mertens
💥 Big Hitter
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Elise Mertens and Aryna Sabalenka are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit. Across 7,186 matches in our dataset, the historical split is about even.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Mertens | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–6 | 12–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.44 | 1.46 |
| ROI % | +55.6% | -19.9% |
| Units P/L | +8.34u | -3.19u |
Prior meetings and scores · 12 career meetings
2
Mertens
10
Sabalenka
Jun 30, 2025
Wimbledon
G Grass · Round of 16
Apr 22, 2025
Madrid
C Clay · Round of 32
Apr 14, 2025
Stuttgart
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Aug 26, 2024
Us Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Jan 16, 2023
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 32
Aug 30, 2021
Us Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Nov 9, 2020
Linz
H Hard · Final
Feb 17, 2020
Dubai
H Hard · Round of 16
Oct 22, 2019
Zhuhai
H Hard · Round Robin
Aug 6, 2018
Montreal
H Hard · Round of 16
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Mertens's 30%).
| Opponent | Mertens | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Diana Shnaider | L 63 67 67 | L |
| Daria Kasatkina | L 46 06 | W |
| Elsa Jacquemot | L 64 36 46 | W |
| Jasmine Paolini | W 46 76 63 | W 63 61 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 36 26 | L 62 36 57 |
| Karolina Muchova | L 61 36 06 | W 63 64 |
| Coco Gauff | L 62 67 36 | W 62 46 63 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 16 36 | W 64 63 |
| Ann Li | W 67 61 62 | W 76 64 |
| Cristina Bucsa | W 62 61 | W 60 61 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Mertens | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 62% | 65.9% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 68.6% | 69.5% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 47.9% | 53.1% |
| Aces / Match | 4.1 | 3.2 |
| Double Faults / Match | 3.7 | 3.3 |
| Break Points Saved % | 58.5% | 58.1% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 39.8% | 36.8% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 54.6% | 57.8% |
| BP Converted % | 45.5% | 39.8% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Net Pts Won % | 0% | 0% |
| Total Pts Won % | 52.6% | 54.1% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 58% | 76% |
Last five matches per player
Matchup overview
Elise Mertens and Aryna Sabalenka face off in the Final at Lugano on Clay.
Elise Mertens leads 2-10 over 12 previous meetings.
Elise Mertens is 2-3 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Nikola Bartunkova (Jun 17).
Aryna Sabalenka is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Diana Shnaider (Jun 3).
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