WTA 1000 · Round of 16 · Tokyo
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rybakina
👑 The Complete Package
Fernandez
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 63% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 222 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Elena Rybakina here.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rybakina | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–0 | 3–1 |
| Avg odds | 1.48 | 1.95 |
| ROI % | +48.0% | +15.8% |
| Units P/L | +0.96u | +0.63u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 5 career meetings
3
Rybakina
2
Fernandez
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rybakina has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Fernandez's 50%).
| Opponent | Rybakina | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Victoria Mboko | L 57 64 46 | L 46 46 |
| Magdalena Frech | W 63 63 | W 64 36 64 |
| Alexandra Eala | W 64 63 | W 61 64 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 64 61 | W 76 64 |
| Mirra Andreeva | W 75 61 | L 67 36 |
| Iva Jovic | W 63 63 | W 36 63 62 |
| Diana Shnaider | W 63 64 | L 36 06 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 46 36 | L 36 67 |
| Jessica Pegula | W 26 63 64 | L 26 26 |
| Hailey Baptiste | W 76 26 62 | W 62 75 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Rybakina | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 61.2% | 62.9% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 72.2% | 65.5% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 53.1% | 47.8% |
| Aces / Match | 6.1 | 2.2 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.4 | 4.9 |
| Break Points Saved % | 56.5% | 67.2% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 36.6% | 34.7% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 52.5% | 54.4% |
| BP Converted % | 51.2% | 44.8% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Net Pts Won % | 0% | 0% |
| Total Pts Won % | 54% | 51% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 80% | 33% |
Last five matches per player
Matchup overview
Elena Rybakina and Leylah Fernandez face off in the Round of 16 at Tokyo on Hard.
Elena Rybakina leads 3-2 over 5 previous meetings.
Elena Rybakina is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Alexandra Eala (May 5).
Leylah Fernandez is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Victoria Mboko (May 17).
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