Grand Slam · Semifinals · Australian Open
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rybakina
💥 Big Hitter
Pegula
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 57% vs 💥 Big Hitter across 4,211 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Jessica Pegula here.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the big hitter's power groundstrokes. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rybakina | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–7 | 10–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.28 | 1.44 |
| ROI % | +71.2% | -7.8% |
| Units P/L | +13.52u | -1.17u |
Prior meetings and scores · 8 career meetings
5
Rybakina
3
Pegula
Mar 17, 2026
Miami
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 4, 2026
Indian Wells
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jan 19, 2026
Australian Open
H Hard · Semifinals
Nov 1, 2025
Riyadh Finals
H Hard · Semifinals
Oct 30, 2023
Cancun Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Mar 20, 2023
Miami
H Hard · Semifinals
Oct 17, 2022
Guadalajara 2
H Hard · Round of 32
Mar 21, 2022
Miami
H Hard · Round of 32
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Pegula has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Rybakina's 60%).
| Opponent | Rybakina | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Katie Boulter | L | W 64 64 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva | L | W 62 62 |
| Kimberly Birrell | W 61 62 | L 61 36 36 |
| Elina Svitolina | L | W 62 64 |
| Iga Swiatek | W 75 61 | L |
| Maria Sakkari | W 64 61 | W 75 64 |
| Anastasia Potapova | L 67 46 | W 76 62 |
| Marta Kostyuk | W 63 64 | L 16 46 |
| Diana Shnaider | W 63 64 | W 36 63 62 |
| Leylah Fernandez | W 67 64 76 | W 62 62 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Rybakina | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 60.1% | 63.9% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 72.7% | 69.6% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 54.4% | 50.3% |
| Aces / Match | 5.5 | 2.6 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| Break Points Saved % | 39.2% | 65.2% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 38.7% | 40.5% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 56.2% | 53.4% |
| BP Converted % | 48.5% | 39.5% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Net Pts Won % | 0% | 0% |
| Total Pts Won % | 55.2% | 53.5% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Matchup overview
Elena Rybakina and Jessica Pegula face off in the Semifinals at Australian Open on Hard.
Elena Rybakina leads 5-3 over 8 previous meetings.
Elena Rybakina is 1-4 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Alexandra Eala (Jun 18).
Jessica Pegula is 1-4 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Katerina Siniakova (Jun 17).
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