ATP Masters 1000 · 1st Round Qualifying · Mutua Madrid Open
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Lajovic
🛡️ The Spoiler
Arnaldi
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The ⚙️ Grinder archetype wins about 55% vs 🛡️ The Spoiler across 1,016 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Matteo Arnaldi here.
Grinder players often use relentless consistency and deep court positioning to pressure the the spoiler's strong court coverage. On Clay, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Lajovic | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–8 | 1–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.83 | 2.05 |
| ROI % | -30.6% | -63.7% |
| Units P/L | -4.28u | -4.46u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 1 career meeting
1
Lajovic
0
Arnaldi
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Lajovic | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more | 100% | 14/14 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 79% | 11/14 | 43% | 3/7 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 7/14 | 29% | 2/7 |
| 10 or more | 7% | 1/14 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/7 |
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Lajovic has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Arnaldi's 25%).
| Opponent | Lajovic | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Cristian Garin | W 64 62 | L 26 46 |
| Alex Molcan | W 76 64 | L 36 16 |
| Alexander Shevchenko | L 26 46 67 | L 67 76 26 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | L 06 36 | L 76 46 46 |
| Daniel Altmaier | W 64 76 | W 46 62 76 |
| Jacob Fearnley | L 46 16 | L 57 26 |
| Rei Sakamoto | W 60 64 | W 76 64 |
| Arthur Cazaux | L 76 26 36 46 | L 46 63 57 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Lajovic | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 67.5% | 58.6% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 69.2% | 64.5% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 44.5% | 47.9% |
| Aces / Match | 4.7 | 3.6 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.1 | 2.6 |
| Break Points Saved % | 56.8% | 43.5% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 32.7% | 35% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 50.5% | 53% |
| BP Converted % | 29.9% | 54.3% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 22.9 | 21.9 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 26.4 | 33.4 |
| Net Pts Won % | 62.8% | 65.3% |
| Total Pts Won % | 49.4% | 50.2% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 43% | 20% |
Last five matches per player
Dusan Lajovic
Mutua Madrid Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Apr 20
Quentin Halys
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · 1st Round Qualifying
Apr 11
Cristian Garin
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Round of 64
Apr 6
Alexandre Muller
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · 2nd Round Qualifying
Apr 5
Vit Kopriva
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · 1st Round Qualifying
Apr 4
Match summary
Dusan Lajovic and Matteo Arnaldi will meet in the first round of qualifying at the Mutua Madrid Open on clay on April 20, 2026. Lajovic, ranked 138th, faces Arnaldi, who sits at 103rd in the standings. This will be their first career meeting on any surface.
The two players have no prior head-to-head history, so this qualifying match will be their initial encounter. However, they've both faced some common opponents in recent weeks, which provides some context for how their games might match up on the Madrid clay.
Lajovic has posted a 65% win rate on clay courts recently with a 13-7 record, though his form over his last five and ten matches has been inconsistent. Arnaldi comes into the match with a much weaker 40% record on clay, going 8-12, and he's been particularly struggling with a three-match losing streak and just two matches played in the last two weeks.
Lajovic plays a disruptive style that can trouble opponents, while Arnaldi is a grinder who relies on consistent baseline play. Lajovic's stronger recent performance on this surface and his ability to produce upsets could be decisive factors in this qualifying opener.
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