ATP Masters 1000 · 1st Round Qualifying · Mutua Madrid Open
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Lajovic
⚙️ Grinder
Arnaldi
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 2,130 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Matteo Arnaldi here.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency. On Clay, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Lajovic | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–9 | 12–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.81 | 2.19 |
| ROI % | -14.1% | +47.1% |
| Units P/L | -2.68u | +8.47u |
Prior meetings and scores · 1 career meeting
1
Lajovic
0
Arnaldi
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 7 shared opponents, both Lajovic and Arnaldi posted a 43% win rate.
| Opponent | Lajovic | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matteo Berrettini | L 63 46 26 | W 75 52 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 46 | L 16 64 36 |
| Daniel Altmaier | W 36 75 76 | W 46 62 76 |
| Lorenzo Sonego | W 63 76 | W 75 75 |
| Alex Molcan | W 76 64 | L 36 16 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | L 06 36 | L 76 46 46 |
| Arthur Cazaux | L 76 26 36 46 | L 46 63 57 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Lajovic | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 67.8% | 61.1% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 70.7% | 64.1% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 52% | 49% |
| Aces / Match | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| Double Faults / Match | 1.6 | 3.2 |
| Break Points Saved % | 59.3% | 51.4% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 31.5% | 33.4% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 47.4% | 52.5% |
| BP Converted % | 34.2% | 45.6% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 23.9 | 24.1 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 23.1 | 36.4 |
| Net Pts Won % | 59.7% | 63.4% |
| Total Pts Won % | 50.4% | 49.3% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 50% | 68% |
Last five matches per player
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Match summary
Dusan Lajovic and Matteo Arnaldi will meet in the first round of qualifying at the Mutua Madrid Open on clay on April 20, 2026. Lajovic, ranked 138th, faces Arnaldi, who sits at 103rd in the standings. This will be their first career meeting on any surface.
The two players have no prior head-to-head history, so this qualifying match will be their initial encounter. However, they've both faced some common opponents in recent weeks, which provides some context for how their games might match up on the Madrid clay.
Lajovic has posted a 65% win rate on clay courts recently with a 13-7 record, though his form over his last five and ten matches has been inconsistent. Arnaldi comes into the match with a much weaker 40% record on clay, going 8-12, and he's been particularly struggling with a three-match losing streak and just two matches played in the last two weeks.
Lajovic plays a disruptive style that can trouble opponents, while Arnaldi is a grinder who relies on consistent baseline play. Lajovic's stronger recent performance on this surface and his ability to produce upsets could be decisive factors in this qualifying opener.
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