ATP 250 · Round of 16 · Marseille
Final score
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Shapovalov
🪃 Counterpuncher
Cilic
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 57% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,272 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Marin Cilic here.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–6 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 3.26 | 2.29 |
| ROI % | -51.0% | -15.0% |
| Units P/L | -4.08u | -1.35u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 6 career meetings
3
Shapovalov
3
Cilic
Jan 21, 2026
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 64
Jun 7, 2021
Stuttgart
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Aug 8, 2020
ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 64
Feb 13, 2020
Marseille
H Hard · Round of 16
Mar 11, 2019
ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells
H Hard · Round of 32
Oct 12, 2018
Basel
H Hard · Round of 32
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Cilic has a higher win rate against shared opponents (56% vs Shapovalov's 22%).
| Opponent | Shapovalov | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Marcos Giron | W 67 60 76 | W 75 64 |
| Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | L 26 16 | W 75 63 |
| Daniel Altmaier | L 57 36 | L 26 36 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 36 26 | L 26 26 |
| Learner Tien | L 67 57 | W 75 76 |
| Casper Ruud | L 36 46 | L 46 46 63 57 |
| Raphael Collignon | L 46 26 | W 63 64 63 |
| Adam Walton | W 62 62 | W 64 61 |
| Flavio Cobolli | L 67 64 67 | L 46 46 76 67 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Shapovalov | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 62.1% | 61.9% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 70.7% | 75.6% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 51.2% | 53.2% |
| Aces / Match | 2.9 | 7.9 |
| Double Faults / Match | 3.7 | 2.3 |
| Break Points Saved % | 45.9% | 70.4% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 31.8% | 29.1% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 49.3% | 49.4% |
| BP Converted % | 41.7% | 43.1% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 13.9 | 20.6 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 19.3 | 24 |
| Net Pts Won % | 45.9% | 72.7% |
| Total Pts Won % | 51.4% | 52.4% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 50% |
Last five matches per player
Jaime Faria
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 26
Mariano Navone
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 128
May 7
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Mutua Madrid Open · Round of 64
Apr 25
Alex Molcan
BMW Open by Bitpanda · Quarterfinals
Apr 17
Tallon Griekspoor
BMW Open by Bitpanda · Round of 32
Apr 14
Moise Kouame
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 26
Martin Landaluce
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 64
May 9
Marcos Giron
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 128
May 7
Zizou Bergs
Mutua Madrid Open · Round of 128
Apr 22
Daniel Altmaier
BMW Open by Bitpanda · Round of 32
Apr 14
Matchup overview
Denis Shapovalov and Marin Cilic face off in the Round of 16 at Marseille on Hard.
Denis Shapovalov leads 3-3 over 6 previous meetings.
Denis Shapovalov is 1-4 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Jaime Faria (May 26).
Marin Cilic is 2-3 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Moise Kouame (May 26).
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