ATP Challenger Tour · 3rd Round Qualifying · Surbiton
Final score
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Shapovalov
💥 Big Hitter
Minaur
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🏹 Frontrunner archetype wins about 54% vs 💥 Big Hitter across 574 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Alex de Minaur here.
Frontrunner players often use fast starts and aggressive openers to pressure the big hitter's power groundstrokes. On Grass, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–5 | 11–7 |
| Avg odds | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| ROI % | -30.4% | -6.3% |
| Units P/L | -2.43u | -1.14u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 5 career meetings
1
Shapovalov
4
Minaur
Apr 29, 2025
ATP Masters 1000 Madrid
C Clay · Round of 32
Oct 21, 2022
Stockholm
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 8, 2022
ATP Masters 1000 Canada
H Hard · Round of 64
Jan 7, 2020
ATP Cup
H Hard · Round Robin
Jun 6, 2017
Surbiton
G Grass · 3rd Round Qualifying
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Shapovalov's 50%).
| Opponent | Shapovalov | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 57 64 63 | W 62 46 64 |
| Rafael Jodar | W 61 62 | L 36 16 |
| Alexander Blockx | L 46 64 36 | W 75 76 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 36 26 | L 57 26 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 62 36 64 | L 36 67 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 57 36 | W 36 76 75 |
| Ben Shelton | L 64 46 67 | L 36 46 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 64 46 76 | W 64 63 |
| Yunchaokete Bu | W 63 76 61 | W 64 60 |
| Jiri Lehecka | L 46 46 | W 76 67 64 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Shapovalov | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 59% | 63% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 67.6% | 63.7% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 52.5% | 49.7% |
| Aces / Match | 4.1 | 2.4 |
| Double Faults / Match | 5 | 2.4 |
| Break Points Saved % | 50.2% | 57.8% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 29.6% | 30.4% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 45.7% | 48.7% |
| BP Converted % | 41.3% | 42.3% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 15 | 19.4 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 24.6 | 36.9 |
| Net Pts Won % | 46.9% | 70.4% |
| Total Pts Won % | 48.9% | 48.4% |
| Surface (Grass) | ||
| Grass Win % | 0% | 75% |
Last five matches per player
Matchup overview
Denis Shapovalov and Alex de Minaur face off in the 3rd Round Qualifying at Surbiton on Grass.
Denis Shapovalov leads 1-4 over 5 previous meetings.
Denis Shapovalov is 1-4 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Marin Cilic (Jun 10).
Alex de Minaur is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Adrian Mannarino (Jun 13).
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