ATP Masters 1000 · Round of 32 · Mutua Madrid Open
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Medvedev
🤖 Servebot
Kjaer
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 58% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 5,334 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Daniil Medvedev here.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency. On Clay, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Kjaer |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–5 | 7–8 |
| Avg odds | 2.05 | 1.88 |
| ROI % | -10.5% | -32.8% |
| Units P/L | -1.36u | -4.92u |
Prior meetings and scores · 1 career meeting
1
Medvedev
0
Kjaer
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Medvedev has a higher win rate against shared opponents (89% vs Kjaer's 22%).
| Opponent | Medvedev | Kjaer |
|---|---|---|
| Marin Cilic | W 62 36 61 | L 57 36 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 64 | L 36 36 |
| Martin Landaluce | W 16 64 75 | W 41 34 42 43 |
| Pablo Llamas Ruiz | W 36 64 62 | W 36 76 63 |
| Dalibor Svrcina | W 61 61 | L 46 26 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 64 60 | L 63 26 57 |
| Jaume Munar | W 61 63 | L 16 36 |
| Learner Tien | L 46 06 36 | L 43 14 24 24 |
| Reilly Opelka | W 36 75 61 | L 46 36 46 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Medvedev | Kjaer |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 64.6% | 63.7% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 69.5% | 64.9% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 50.8% | 47.3% |
| Aces / Match | 4.3 | 2.3 |
| Double Faults / Match | 3.3 | 2.5 |
| Break Points Saved % | 62.4% | 54.3% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 32.6% | 32.4% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 54.5% | 49.9% |
| BP Converted % | 37.9% | 38.1% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 24.3 | 16.9 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 27.2 | 27.6 |
| Net Pts Won % | 69% | 66.9% |
| Total Pts Won % | 51.4% | 48.7% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 56% | 53% |
Last five matches per player
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Match summary
Daniil Medvedev meets Nicolai Budkov Kjaer in the Round of 32 at the Mutua Madrid Open on April 27, a clay court contest between the 10th ranked Russian and the 140th ranked Dane. The two have never faced each other. Medvedev arrives with one match in the last two weeks after a loss in his previous outing; Budkov Kjaer has played three times in that span and won his last three matches.
Neither player brings clay form that separates them on paper. Medvedev holds a 65% record on the surface from recent play, as does Budkov Kjaer. Both faced Jaume Munar recently, though with opposite results: Medvedev defeated him while Budkov Kjaer lost. The same pattern held against Learner Tien.
Medvedev's power game relies on driving through the court and dictating from the baseline, a style that can struggle against clay's slower pace and higher bounces. Budkov Kjaer operates as a counterpuncher who reads the court and redirects pace rather than generating it himself. On clay, Medvedev must sustain precision over extended rallies; Budkov Kjaer needs to convert the opportunities that Medvedev's aggressive approach creates.
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