Grand Slam · Round of 16 · US Open
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alcaraz
💥 Big Hitter
Arnaldi
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 4,745 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Carlos Alcaraz here.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–1 | 13–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.20 | 2.18 |
| ROI % | -13.0% | +49.9% |
| Units P/L | -0.78u | +9.48u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 1 career meeting
1
Alcaraz
0
Arnaldi
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Arnaldi's 33%).
| Opponent | Alcaraz | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Alex de Minaur | W 75 62 61 | W 46 76 64 |
| Andrey Rublev | W 76 64 | L 46 26 36 |
| Alexander Zverev | W 64 76 67 67 75 | L 46 46 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | W 76 63 62 | L 76 46 46 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 67 75 63 | L 36 46 |
| Luca Nardi | W 61 64 | W 60 67 63 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Alcaraz | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 61.6% | 61.1% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 71.5% | 64.1% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 55.4% | 49% |
| Aces / Match | 2.8 | 4.5 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| Break Points Saved % | 43.3% | 51.4% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 42.1% | 33.4% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 57.7% | 52.5% |
| BP Converted % | 51.9% | 45.6% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 24 | 25 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 29.4 | 35 |
| Net Pts Won % | 65.5% | 60.6% |
| Total Pts Won % | 56.3% | 49.3% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Otto Virtanen
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Round of 32
Apr 14
Jannik Sinner
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Final
Apr 11
Valentin Vacherot
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Semifinals
Apr 11
Alexander Bublik
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Quarterfinals
Apr 10
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Round of 16
Apr 8
Giles Hussey
Lexus Eastbourne Open · Round of 32
Jun 23
Toby Samuel
Lexus Eastbourne Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 21
Alastair Gray
Lexus Eastbourne Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 20
Matteo Berrettini
Roland Garros · Quarterfinals
Jun 3
Frances Tiafoe
Roland Garros · Round of 16
May 31
Matchup overview
Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi face off in the Round of 16 at US Open on Hard.
Carlos Alcaraz leads 1-0 over 1 previous meeting.
Carlos Alcaraz is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Otto Virtanen (Apr 14).
Matteo Arnaldi is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Giles Hussey (Jun 23).
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