ATP 500 · Finals · Rotterdam
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Minaur
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 59% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 66 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Carlos Alcaraz here.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–3 | 8–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.14 | 1.58 |
| ROI % | -18.9% | -17.5% |
| Units P/L | -2.46u | -2.62u |
Prior meetings and scores · 6 career meetings
6
Alcaraz
0
Minaur
Jan 27, 2026
Australian Open
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Nov 9, 2025
Nitto ATP Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Apr 18, 2025
Barcelona
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Feb 9, 2025
Rotterdam
H Hard · Finals
Jun 25, 2023
London / Queen's Club
G Grass · Finals
Apr 23, 2022
Barcelona
C Clay · Semifinals
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Minaur's 50%).
| Opponent | Alcaraz | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Tommy Paul | W 76 64 75 | L 62 36 36 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 62 64 60 | W 60 63 |
| Hamad Medjedovic | W 64 64 | L 36 46 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 67 36 | L 57 26 |
| Valentin Vacherot | W 64 64 | L 46 63 36 |
| Alexander Bublik | W 63 60 | W 64 61 61 |
| Cameron Norrie | W 63 64 | W 76 26 62 |
| Sebastian Korda | L 36 75 46 | W 46 64 64 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 36 67 | L 46 46 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | W 67 63 62 | W 63 36 76 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Alcaraz | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 66% | 60.9% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 73.6% | 66.1% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 56.9% | 49.2% |
| Aces / Match | 4.5 | 2.6 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2 | 2.3 |
| Break Points Saved % | 54.5% | 56.9% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 37.1% | 27.8% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 58.4% | 47.5% |
| BP Converted % | 53.8% | 32.2% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 24.5 | 18.9 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 25.6 | 36.5 |
| Net Pts Won % | 69.9% | 69.4% |
| Total Pts Won % | 56% | 48% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 71% | 33% |
Last five matches per player
Otto Virtanen
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Round of 32
Apr 14
Jannik Sinner
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Final
Apr 12
Valentin Vacherot
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Semifinals
Apr 11
Alexander Bublik
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Quarterfinals
Apr 10
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Round of 16
Apr 9
Toby Samuel
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 25
Tommy Paul
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Semifinals
May 19
Luciano Darderi
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Quarterfinals
May 16
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Round of 16
May 13
Francisco Cerundolo
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Round of 32
May 9
Matchup overview
Carlos Alcaraz and Alex de Minaur face off in the Finals at Rotterdam on Hard.
Carlos Alcaraz leads 6-0 over 6 previous meetings.
Carlos Alcaraz is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Otto Virtanen (Apr 14).
Alex de Minaur is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Toby Samuel (May 25).
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