ATP Challenger Tour · Finals · Villa Maria
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Carabelli
🪃 Counterpuncher
Jong
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,227 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Jesper de Jong here.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion. On Clay, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Jong |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–7 | 13–8 |
| Avg odds | 2.16 | 2.20 |
| ROI % | -1.3% | -4.9% |
| Units P/L | -0.20u | -1.03u |
Prior meetings and scores · 7 career meetings
3
Carabelli
4
Jong
Jul 19, 2025
Bastad
C Clay · Semifinals
Oct 13, 2024
Villa Maria
C Clay · Finals
Jan 3, 2024
Australian Open
H Hard · 3rd Round Qualifying
Jan 19, 2023
Piracicaba
C Clay · Round of 16
Jan 12, 2023
Tigre 2
C Clay · Round of 16
May 13, 2021
Oeiras 4
C Clay · Round of 32
Nov 2, 2020
Guayaquil
C Clay · 2nd Round Qualifying
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Carabelli has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Jong's 30%).
| Opponent | Carabelli | Jong |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Zverev | L 76 16 57 | L 67 46 16 |
| Karen Khachanov | W 63 64 | W 75 57 62 67 62 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 16 61 36 67 | L 46 36 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | W 16 62 63 | W 46 76 76 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | L 16 16 | L 61 36 26 46 |
| Hugo Dellien | W 64 62 | W 46 62 76 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 36 | L 62 57 46 |
| Cristian Garin | W 64 64 | L 57 61 16 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | L 46 36 | L 67 46 |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | W 75 61 | L 46 46 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Carabelli | Jong |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 61.6% | 65.2% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 70.6% | 71.4% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 51.6% | 47.4% |
| Aces / Match | 4.4 | 6.9 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.4 | 3.3 |
| Break Points Saved % | 64% | 61.3% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 32.6% | 33.4% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 54.2% | 48.6% |
| BP Converted % | 37.5% | 54.6% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 22.6 | 24.6 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 28.9 | 28.1 |
| Net Pts Won % | 72.5% | 73.2% |
| Total Pts Won % | 51.3% | 51% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 56% | 53% |
Last five matches per player
Andrey Rublev
Roland Garros · Round of 64
May 27
Emilio Nava
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Round of 32
May 18
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Quarterfinals
May 16
Miomir Kecmanovic
Copa Faulconbridge · Quarterfinals
May 15
Enrico Dalla Valle
SIC EUROPE OMAG OPEN · Semifinals
Jun 13
Marco Cecchinato
SIC EUROPE OMAG OPEN · Quarterfinals
Jun 12
Federico Bondioli
SIC EUROPE OMAG OPEN · Round of 16
Jun 11
Ognjen Milic
SIC EUROPE OMAG OPEN · Round of 32
Jun 10
Alexander Zverev
Roland Garros · Round of 16
May 31
Matchup overview
Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Jesper de Jong face off in the Finals at Villa Maria on Clay.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli leads 3-4 over 7 previous meetings.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli is 2-3 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Andrey Rublev (May 27).
Jesper de Jong is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Enrico Dalla Valle (Jun 13).
Share this match
