WTA 1000 · Round of 16 · Madrid
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Andreeva
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 56% vs 💥 Big Hitter across 4,224 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Mirra Andreeva here.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the big hitter's power groundstrokes. On Clay, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–1 | 11–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.82 | 2.11 |
| ROI % | +1.2% | +66.2% |
| Units P/L | +0.11u | +8.61u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 6 career meetings
4
Sabalenka
2
Andreeva
Mar 5, 2025
Indian Wells
H Hard · Final
Jan 13, 2025
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Dec 30, 2024
Brisbane
H Hard · Semifinals
May 27, 2024
Roland Garros
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Apr 22, 2024
Madrid
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Apr 24, 2023
Madrid
C Clay · Round of 16
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Andreeva has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Sabalenka's 70%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Diana Shnaider | L | W 63 62 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 62 36 57 | W |
| Marie Bouzkova | W 76 64 | W |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 64 62 | W 64 61 |
| Marta Kostyuk | W 64 63 | W 61 63 |
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | L 64 26 46 |
| Elise Mertens | W 64 76 | W 63 63 |
| Hailey Baptiste | L 62 26 67 | W 64 76 |
| Jaqueline Cristian | W 61 64 | W 75 63 |
| Leylah Fernandez | W 63 76 | W 76 63 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 65.4% | 62.8% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 71.8% | 67.6% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 54.4% | 51.4% |
| Aces / Match | 3.9 | 3.5 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.3 | 3.5 |
| Break Points Saved % | 54.5% | 49.6% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 34.2% | 38.6% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 57.5% | 58.3% |
| BP Converted % | 45.2% | 51.7% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Net Pts Won % | 0% | 0% |
| Total Pts Won % | 54.5% | 53.6% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 76% | 91% |
Last five matches per player
Matchup overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Mirra Andreeva face off in the Round of 16 at Madrid on Clay.
Aryna Sabalenka leads 4-2 over 6 previous meetings.
Aryna Sabalenka is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Diana Shnaider (Jun 3).
Mirra Andreeva is 5-0 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Maja Chwalinska (Jun 6).
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